1445 Old Louisquisset Pike Unit 1B · Pawtucket, RI 02865

$268,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · Condo · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 $246/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Cobble Hill Crossing Condominiums. 20 - New construction Duplex Townhouse style units in desirable Lincoln, RI. Each unit has 1,280 sq. ft. of living area with 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths. Granite Kitchens. Energy saving Heat/AC/Hot Water. Buyers must meet RI Housing 80% LMI affordability and income restriction criteria to qualify for the purchase (Please see showing instructions). 7 Minutes to Downtown Providence. RIPTA Bus route. April 1st occupancy. $246 monthly HOA fee. Construction sites are hazardous places, please do not walk the property unless escorted by the listing agent.

Key facts

• $246 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Pawtucket — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#16 in RI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Lincoln (suburban): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 39 in RI (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,753 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,706
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,160
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02865

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $248,764

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16A Nipmuc Trl North Providence, RI	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,650	$2.30	44d	1	0.74mi
1 Santini St Unit J North Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	1242	$3,000	$2.42	1d	1	1.05mi
162 Urban Ave #3 North Providence, RI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	44d	1	1.39mi
124 Jane St Unit B North Providence, RI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   listed $268,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$6,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln
• NCES district ID: 4400570
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $69,500
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4115
• State rank: #13 of 39 in RI

Livability — Pawtucket

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #7037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 75,942
• Population (ZIP): 18,033

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Russian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.01%
• Current HPI: 325.7543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — RIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $268,000 RIS