31 Cemetary Rd · Constantia, NY 13044

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot $35/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity in the Central Square School district. This Ranch home features four bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, living room, kitchen and a dining room. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 1 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee while listening to the babbling of Scriba Creek.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($239/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.3% in Constantia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.94%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,095
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -76.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 County Route 23	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-3%)	8mo	$167,500	$101	59
1655 State Route 49	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,552 (-9%)	10mo	$230,000	$148	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $34,271
• Equity at exit: $53,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $100,683
• Equity at exit: $116,373

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13044

• Home prices YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,900 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 184 DOM
11. 2025-12-28
    price $59,900 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Amazing opportunity in the Central Square School district. This Ranch home features four bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, living room, kitchen and a dining room. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 1 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee while listening to the babbling of Scriba Creek.

12. 2025-11-28
    listed $69,900 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Amazing opportunity in the Central Square School district. This Ranch home features four bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, living room, kitchen and a dining room. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 1 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee while listening to the babbling of Scriba Creek.

13. 2000-12-05
    soldstatus $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,834 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,834 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$5,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable loss: −$314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Constantia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #672
• US rank: #12597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Constantia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,884

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Portuguese 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.34%
• Current HPI: 260.47
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2000-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,834 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.