12014 Shining Lake Dr · Baytown, TX 77523

$322,790

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · Land · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Walk-in pantry
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Meritage Homes
• HOA & community: Association: First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $900; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); One-story (entry and main living on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Sprinkler/irrigation; Greenhouse; Subdivision lot with side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Ice maker; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, approx. 14x16); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10x11); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10x11); Bonus room (First floor, approx. 10x12)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in at least one bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Energy Star qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $322,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,722.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $323k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $264,222 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,722
• List price: $322,790
• Delta: 42.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,994
• Equity at exit: $40,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $24,923
• Equity at exit: $23,407

Cash invested: $75,802 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,420
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $270,722

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $575	-5% $498	+0% $421	+5% $345	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $317	+0% $421	+5% $526	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $490	base $421	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,680
• Closing costs: $8,122
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12820 Langston Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,843	$2.64	0d	259	1.31mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	24d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $322,790 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $322,790 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $322,790 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $322,790 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,790 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,790 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,790 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $322,790 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $322,790 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $322,790 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $391,690 Active 23 DOM

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $386,690 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $386,690 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $386,690 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

17. 2026-05-13
    price $385,690 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

18. 2026-04-24
    historical 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $392,690 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,907 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,206/yr (+$434/mo · 742.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,165
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,537
• − Management: −$2,537
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,876
• Taxable income: $638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $4,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $391,690 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Listed $322,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $386,690 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $385,690 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $392,690 Zillow