17 Hogestown Rd · Mechanicsburg, PA 17050

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.62 ac lot $198/sqft · 22% below area Est $244k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

17 Hogestown Road is ready for its next chapter and has so much potential. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a practical layout, comfortable living spaces, and an opportunity to make it your own, all at an affordable price point. Inside, the home features a functional floor plan that makes everyday living easy, with just the right amount of space for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to settle into a convenient location. Outside, you’ll find a large backyard with plenty of room to relax, garden, or entertain, along with an attached carport for added convenience. Location is key here, situated just minutes from Carlisle Pike, you’ll have quick access to shopping,

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space); Driveway and off-street parking; One total garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family; One story entry level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C (electric); Heating: other; Hot water: other
• Interior features: Full basement; Two or more access exits; Level entry to main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($957/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Mechanicsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#372 in PA, #3,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cumberland Valley SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,394 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,738
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -22.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Hogestown Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$192,500	$201	99
1 South Rd	0.07mi	3/1.0	950 (-1%)	24mo	$262,762	$277	75
121 E Portland St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	986 (+3%)	2mo	$199,900	$203	66
120 N Frederick St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+14%)	11mo	$219,901	$201	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,413
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,253
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17050

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,391/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $134	+0% $80	+5% $26	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $12	+0% $80	+5% $147	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $128	base $80	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 W Green St Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.5	950	$1,650	$1.74	14d	1	0.43mi
6 W Green St Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	14d	1	0.46mi
121 E Portland St Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	986	$950	$0.96	14d	1	0.50mi
19 W Main St Unit 6 Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	0.62mi
34 W Locust St Unit 1 Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.66mi
309 E Main St Unit 2ND/3RD FLOOR Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$995	$1.05	14d	1	0.80mi
128 Easterly Dr Mechanicsburg, PA	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,750	$1.68	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 973-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $189,900 Active 973-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   historical $189,900 973-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,391 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,696 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$305/yr (+$25/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,391
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$534
• After-tax cash flow: $1,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mechanicsburg

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #3259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 85,577
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,571
• Household income: $113,720
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.84%
• Current HPI: 241.7363
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $192,500 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $192,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $189,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,391 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.