2650 W Union Hills Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$56,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · Land public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1969 $67/sqft · 27% above area Est $53k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our charming, spacious 3-bedroom, 2-full bath home, beautifully updated with a brand-new roof and freshly painted walls and cabinets throughout. This wonderful fixer-upper presents an excellent opportunity to personalize your dream home. Nestled within a secure, gated 55+ community, enjoy a lifestyle enriched with a wide array of amenities designed for comfort and active living.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1969

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Head west on W Union Hills Dr. Turn left to enter the community.
• HOA & community: Land lease (approximately $1,048 monthly); No association fees; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Golf access; Fitness center; Coin-operated laundry

Exterior

• Parking: Separate storage area
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Storage; Corner lot; Natural desert front; Natural desert back; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Meadows Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 600 students, 54% FRL); Deer Valley Middle School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #105 of 218 statewide, top 49%, 537 students, 65% FRL); Barry Goldwater High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #147 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,641 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 21% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Deer Valley Unified District (4246) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.02%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,000
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: 16.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $34,201
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $74,743
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $764	+0% $745	+5% $726	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $688	+0% $745	+5% $802	+10% $858
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $759	base $745	+0.5pp $731	+1.0pp $716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	26d	1	0.30mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,729	$1.74	1d	18	0.41mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	20d	2	0.49mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	5d	19	0.57mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	4d	80	0.62mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.67mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	10d	1	0.67mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	17d	1	0.67mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	17d	1	0.67mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	46d	1	0.70mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,366	$1.68	0d	61	0.79mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	19d	1	0.87mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	26d	1	0.89mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	580	$1,121	$1.93	1d	1	0.89mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	24d	1	0.89mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	46d	1	0.89mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	46d	1	0.94mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	46d	1	0.97mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	4d	2	1.00mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,400	$1.58	1d	3	1.00mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	1d	30	1.05mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	26d	1	1.10mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	1d	11	1.19mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,560	$1.62	1d	15	1.21mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	46d	1	1.23mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	5d	1	1.24mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	26d	1	1.24mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	0d	33	1.27mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	1d	21	1.33mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	38	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	24d	1	1.37mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Unit C113 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	1d	1	1.39mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	26d	1	1.39mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	26d	2	1.39mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	15d	2	1.39mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	26d	1	1.41mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	20d	2	1.41mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	1d	34	1.44mi
20401 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,637	$1.96	1d	12	1.44mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	46d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 627-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on marketlisting id $56,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $62,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $62,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $62,000 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! NEW ROOF 2026! Well cared for 2 bed 2 bath home in the quiet gated community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood. Great floor plan with split bedrooms, stainless steel appliances in the kitchen, wheelchair accessible entrance, laminate wood flooring throughout, his and her closets and an oversized enclosed patio for relaxing. Amenities include community pool, hot tub, golf course, gym and more! This property has it all to move in today! 55+ only community.

19. 2026-04-03
    historical
20. 2026-02-20
    status Active
21. 2026-02-12
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
22. 2025-12-03
    status Active
23. 2025-12-03
    price $62,000
24. 2025-12-01
    historical
25. 2025-11-19
    historical $900
26. 2025-10-18
    listed $900
27. 2025-08-07
    price $65,000
28. 2025-07-17
    listed $75,000 Active
29. 2025-01-01
    historical
30. 2024-12-04
    price $64,000
31. 2024-06-08
    listed $65,000 Active
32. 2019-08-16
    historical
33. 2019-08-13
    listed $54,999 Active
34. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus $6,923,468

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $8,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $6,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $56,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $27,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-15 Listed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Rental Removed $900 Avail
• 2025-10-18 Listed for Rent $900 Avail
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $64,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Listed $54,999 ARMLS
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,923,468 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $58,523 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.