33 Walker Way · Stafford Courthouse, VA 22554

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2023 0.49 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.0% in Stafford Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $250k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,596
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,040
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22554

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,218/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Courthouse Rd Stafford, VA	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,200	$2.10	24d	1	1.14mi
144 Keating Cir Stafford, VA	4.0	3.5	1692	$2,500	$1.48	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2023-09-29
   status Pending
2. 2023-09-28
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2021-01-22
   soldstatus $62,500 Closed 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

4. 2021-01-22
   soldstatus $62,500

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

5. 2020-12-09
   status Pending 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

6. 2020-09-11
   price $69,500 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

7. 2020-05-21
   listed $75,000 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Nearly 1/2 an acre lot off of a private road conveniently located between Stafford Hospital & Hope Springs Marina. City water plus non active well that could be reactivated for irrigation sprinklers. Will need a septic system. Build your dream home in Stafford County!

8. 2020-01-10
   soldstatus $52,000 Closed 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Approx. 1/2 Acre lot on Walker Way in Stafford in great location just short distance off Hope Road. Close to Stafford Courthouse, US RT 1 and I-95, Stafford Hospital and marinas.

9. 2019-12-10
   price $54,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   Approx. 1/2 Acre lot on Walker Way in Stafford in great location just short distance off Hope Road. Close to Stafford Courthouse, US RT 1 and I-95, Stafford Hospital and marinas.

10. 2019-12-10
    historical Active Under Contract 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Approx. 1/2 Acre lot on Walker Way in Stafford in great location just short distance off Hope Road. Close to Stafford Courthouse, US RT 1 and I-95, Stafford Hospital and marinas.

11. 2019-12-05
    listed $74,900 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Approx. 1/2 Acre lot on Walker Way in Stafford in great location just short distance off Hope Road. Close to Stafford Courthouse, US RT 1 and I-95, Stafford Hospital and marinas.

12. 2014-03-25
    historical
13. 2014-03-25
    historical
14. 2014-02-10
    listed Active
15. 2014-02-10
    historical Withdrawn
16. 2014-02-10
    listed $349,900
17. 2014-02-10
    historical
18. 2014-01-22
    listed Active
19. 2014-01-22
    listed $349,900
20. 2006-10-25
    historical
21. 2005-12-27
    soldstatus $100,000
22. 2005-12-18
    listed
23. 1984-12-01
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,218 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$832/yr (+$69/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,218
• − Insurance: −$1,916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,434
• − Management: −$2,434
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $4,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stafford Courthouse

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #9630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 65,494
• Household income: $151,480
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 781.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.68%
• Current HPI: 280.621
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+415.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-29 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-09-28 Listed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2021-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) $62,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-12-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-11 Price Changed $69,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-21 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-10 Sold (MLS) $52,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-10 Price Changed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-05 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-02-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-02-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-10 Listed $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-22 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-01-22 Listed $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-10-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-18 Listed — MRIS
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,218 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.