8764 West Ave · Eden, NY 14057

$99,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,683 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1946 1.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8764 West Ave - This property sits at the end of a quiet dead end street on 1.37 acres. This Cape Cod home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, bright living room and formal dining room. Primary bedroom on the first floor with a full bathroom. Full basement and plenty of space to add a garage.

Key facts

• 1.37 acres
• Full basement
• 1.37 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• 1.37 ACRES
• PRIMARY BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Eden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#62 in NY, #896 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Eden Central School District (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #226 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.81%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,329
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2591 Meadow Ln	0.23mi	4/1.0	1,625 (-3%)	6mo	$100,000	$62	73
9005 Gowanda State Rd	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,590 (-6%)	0mo	$259,000	$163	60
2742 Hemlock Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,666 (-1%)	14mo	$97,000	$58	54
2786 Madonna Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,650 (-2%)	7mo	$410,000	$248	54
2610 Hemlock Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	11mo	$275,000	$183	54
2583 Sunset Dr	0.31mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-11%)	8mo	$285,000	$191	54
2463 Hemlock Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,464 (-13%)	7mo	$200,000	$137	38
2796 Second St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (+8%)	22mo	$250,000	$138	38
8679 Hammond Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,716 (+2%)	21mo	$333,000	$194	36
8743 Violet Pkwy	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,767 (+5%)	20mo	$282,800	$160	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,273
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $43,077
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2025-05-28
   price $159,900
4. 2025-04-28
   listed $169,900 Active
5. 2008-09-16
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$865
• After-tax cash flow: $4,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610170
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $64,812
• Composite: 52.05/100
• National rank: #1631
• State rank: #226 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eden

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eden, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.08%
• Current HPI: 315.2681
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2008-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,359 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.