4333 San Ernesto Ave #207 · Anchorage, AK 99508

$114,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 556 sqft · Condo · 256 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $207/sqft · 15% below area Est $135k · 15% under $297/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this brightly lit, cozy 1 bedroom, 1 bath home! This home has had several updates and is ready to call home! Convenient carport and laundry available in the building. Close to shopping, schools, and JBER.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Carport
• Close to jber

Tags

• CARPORT
• LAUNDRY AVAILABLE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO JBER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Williwaw Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #139 of 156 statewide, top 92%, 305 students, 96% FRL); Clark Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #35 of 36 statewide, top 97%, 835 students, 100% FRL); Bettye Davis East Anchorage High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #51 of 61 statewide, top 83%, 1,745 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 38% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,251
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -15.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4333 San Ernesto Ave Unit W208	0.00mi	1/1.0	564 (+1%)	1mo	$119,000	$211	97
4448 Reka Dr #4448	0.64mi	1/1.0	501 (-10%)	0mo	$129,000	$257	54
251 McCarrey St Unit V-1A	0.61mi	1/1.0	597 (+7%)	8mo	$79,500	$133	53
231 McCarrey St Unit 7A	0.65mi	1/1.0	597 (+7%)	6mo	$108,000	$181	52
4358 Reka Dr #4358	0.66mi	1/1.0	501 (-10%)	4mo	$135,000	$269	49
4660 Reka Dr Unit D05	0.66mi	1/1.0	661 (+19%)	2mo	$130,000	$197	43
4322 Reka Dr #4322	0.62mi	2/1.0 (+1)	674 (+21%)	1mo	$169,900	$252	41
4610 Reka Dr Unit A11	0.63mi	1/1.0	661 (+19%)	7mo	$120,000	$182	40
4852 Mills Dr #80	1.43mi	1/1.0	692 (+24%)	2mo	$190,000	$275	38
4660 Reka Dr Unit D13	0.66mi	1/1.0	661 (+19%)	8mo	$130,000	$197	37
4768 Mills Dr #42	1.42mi	1/1.0	684 (+23%)	4mo	$224,000	$327	37
4069 E 20th Ave #51	0.67mi	1/1.0	685 (+23%)	9mo	$130,000	$190	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-17,533
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,579
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $169,900 ($252/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99508

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$297
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,381

Max offer price $111,009

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $13	+0% $-27	+5% $-67	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-80	+0% $-27	+5% $26	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $2	base $-27	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 S Flower St Unit 12 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	650	$1,300	$2.00	63d	1	0.53mi
330 S Flower St Unit 01 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	93d	1	0.54mi
4545 Reka Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0	562	$1,395	$2.48	63d	10	0.55mi
218 McCarrey St Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	640	$1,335	$2.09	70d	9	0.67mi
225 N Park St Unit 11 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	710	$1,200	$1.69	93d	1	0.87mi
404 N Klevin St Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	93d	1	0.99mi
415 N Bragaw St Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	63d	3	1.02mi
415 N Bragaw St #18 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	93d	1	1.02mi
601 N Klevin St Unit 02 Anchorage, AK	—	1.0	500	$1,095	$2.19	93d	1	1.09mi
5901 E 6th Ave Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,999	$2.20	63d	7	1.14mi
5340 E 26th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	445	$1,306	$2.94	63d	3	1.28mi
4731 Mills Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$2,000	$2.86	93d	1	1.39mi
6701 E 6th Ave Apt 8 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	750	$1,450	$1.93	93d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail $297/mo · $3,564/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $114,900 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $114,900 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $114,900 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $114,900 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $114,900 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $114,900 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $114,900 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $114,900 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $114,900 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $114,900 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 233 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 232 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $114,900 Active 231 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $114,900 Active 230 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $114,900 Active 229 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $114,900 Active 228 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $114,900 Active 227 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 226 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    remarks 267-char remark
26. 2026-07-08
    pricedays on market $114,900 Active 225 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 224 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,500 Active 223 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 222 DOM
30. 2026-07-04
    days on market $119,500 Active 221 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 220 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 219 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 218 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 217 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $119,500 Active 216 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,500 Active 215 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,500 Active 214 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,500 Active 213 DOM
39. 2026-06-25
    days on market $119,500 Active 211 DOM
40. 2026-06-23
    days on market $119,500 Active 209 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,500 Active 208 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $119,500 Active 205 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $119,500 Active 204 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $119,500 Active 203 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $119,500 Active 202 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $119,500 Active 200 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,500 Active 199 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $119,500 Active 197 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,500 Active 196 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 195 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − HOA: −$3,564
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$495
• After-tax cash flow: $172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,780–$8,340 screening

This cozy 1-bedroom condo is in good condition with recent updates, ready for move-in. Potential for further improvements to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both New carpet — Freshens up living room and improves rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Williwaw Elementary F AK #139/156 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Clark Middle School F AK #35/36 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Bettye Davis East Anchorage High School F AK #51/61 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 314,993 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 36,458
• Household income: $79,314
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Two or more races 14% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 10% Pacific Islander 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.51%
• Current HPI: 257.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+84.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $119,500 AKMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $127,900 AKMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $134,900 AKMLS
• 2008-08-18 Listed $64,900 AKMLS