4333 San Ernesto Ave #207 · Anchorage, AK 99508

$114,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 556 sqft · Condo · 289 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $207/sqft · 15% below area Est $135k · 15% under $396/mo HOA · 30% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this brightly lit, cozy 1 bedroom, 1 bath home! This home has had several updates and is ready to call home! Convenient carport and laundry available in the building. Close to shopping, schools, and JBER.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Carport
• Close to jber

Tags

• CARPORT
• LAUNDRY AVAILABLE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO JBER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (19.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Williwaw Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #139 of 156 statewide, top 92%, 305 students, 96% FRL); Clark Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #35 of 36 statewide, top 97%, 835 students, 100% FRL); Bettye Davis East Anchorage High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #51 of 61 statewide, top 83%, 1,745 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 38% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $92,474 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,251
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -15.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4333 San Ernesto Ave Unit W208	0.00mi	1/1.0	564 (+1%)	4mo	$119,000	$211	94
4333 San Ernesto Ave #209	0.00mi	1/1.0	580 (+4%)	1mo	$115,000	$198	92
4352 Reka Dr	0.66mi	1/1.0	501 (-10%)	1mo	$130,000	$259	52
4448 Reka Dr #4448	0.64mi	1/1.0	501 (-10%)	3mo	$129,000	$257	51
4358 Reka Dr #4358	0.66mi	1/1.0	501 (-10%)	7mo	$135,000	$269	47
4630 Reka Dr Unit C14	0.65mi	1/1.0	661 (+19%)	2mo	$129,900	$197	43
4244 Reka Dr #4244	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	674 (+21%)	1mo	$188,999	$280	42
4660 Reka Dr Unit D05	0.66mi	1/1.0	661 (+19%)	5mo	$130,000	$197	40
4766 Mills Dr #41	1.41mi	1/1.0	684 (+23%)	2mo	$198,000	$289	38
4322 Reka Dr #4322	0.62mi	2/1.0 (+1)	674 (+21%)	4mo	$169,900	$252	38
4852 Mills Dr #80	1.43mi	1/1.0	692 (+24%)	5mo	$190,000	$275	36
4768 Mills Dr #42	1.42mi	1/1.0	684 (+23%)	7mo	$224,000	$327	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-25,702
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-23,256
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $169,900 ($252/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99508

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$396
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $92,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-115	+0% $-155	+5% $-195	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-207	+0% $-155	+5% $-103	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-126	base $-155	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4404 San Roberto Ave Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	10d	1	0.01mi
330 S Flower St Unit 12 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	650	$1,300	$2.00	154d	1	0.53mi
330 S Flower St Unit 01 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	184d	1	0.54mi
4545 Reka Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0	562	$1,404	$2.50	2d	10	0.55mi
218 McCarrey St Anchorage, AK	1.0–3.0	1.0	747	$1,350	$1.81	1d	10	0.67mi
4660 Reka Dr Unit D14 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	661	$1,400	$2.12	46d	1	0.68mi
1200 Columbine Ct Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0	761	$1,749	$2.30	0d	2	0.69mi
3401 E 15th Ave Apt 2B Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	10d	1	0.70mi
3401 E 15th Ave Apt 2B Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	17d	1	0.70mi
406 Camelot Dr Apt 4 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	560	$1,595	$2.85	29d	1	0.76mi
406 Camelot Dr Apt 4 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	560	$1,495	$2.67	2d	1	0.76mi
225 N Park St Unit 11 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	710	$1,200	$1.69	184d	1	0.87mi
5130 Taku Dr Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	730	$1,350	$1.85	48d	1	0.88mi
3701 Richmond Ave Apt 9 Anchorage, AK	—	1.0	500	$1,000	$2.00	2d	1	0.95mi
342 N Klevin St Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	51d	1	0.98mi
342 N Klevin St Apt 3 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	29d	1	0.98mi
404 N Klevin St Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	184d	1	0.99mi
433 N Bliss St Unit 433 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	0d	1	1.01mi
415 N Bragaw St Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$1,375	$1.96	10d	2	1.02mi
415 N Bragaw St #18 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	184d	1	1.02mi
1602 Nunaka Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	728	$2,400	$3.30	47d	1	1.05mi
601 N Klevin St Unit 02 Anchorage, AK	—	1.0	500	$1,095	$2.19	184d	1	1.09mi
5215 E 26th Ave Unit 8 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	550	$1,295	$2.35	0d	1	1.20mi
3162 Tarwater Ave Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	745	$1,400	$1.88	51d	1	1.21mi
5215 E 26th Ave #6 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	51d	1	1.21mi
5340 E 26th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0–2.0	1.0	638	$1,444	$2.26	1d	4	1.28mi
4731 Mills Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$1,900	$2.71	10d	1	1.39mi
6701 E 6th Ave Apt 8 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	750	$1,450	$1.93	184d	1	1.50mi
6701 E 6th Ave Apt 16 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	2d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail $396/mo · $4,752/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-20
   days on market $114,900 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-10-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-10-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-10-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-10-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-10-15
   status $114,900 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-09-06
   status $114,900 Pending 284 DOM
8. 2026-09-05
   days on market $114,900 Active 284 DOM
9. 2026-09-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-09-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-08-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-08-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-08-29
    days on market $114,900 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-08-28
    days on market $114,900 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-08-27
    days on market $114,900 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-08-26
    days on market $114,900 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-08-25
    days on market $114,900 Active 273 DOM
18. 2026-08-24
    days on market $114,900 Active 272 DOM
19. 2026-08-23
    days on market $114,900 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-08-22
    days on market $114,900 Active 270 DOM
21. 2026-08-21
    days on market $114,900 Active 269 DOM
22. 2026-08-20
    days on market $114,900 Active 268 DOM
23. 2026-08-19
    days on market $114,900 Active 267 DOM
24. 2026-08-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 266 DOM
25. 2026-08-17
    days on market $114,900 Active 265 DOM
26. 2026-08-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 264 DOM
27. 2026-08-15
    days on market $114,900 Active 263 DOM
28. 2026-08-14
    days on market $114,900 Active 262 DOM
29. 2026-08-13
    days on market $114,900 Active 261 DOM
30. 2026-08-12
    days on market $114,900 Active 260 DOM
31. 2026-08-11
    days on market $114,900 Active 259 DOM
32. 2026-08-10
    days on market $114,900 Active 258 DOM
33. 2026-08-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 257 DOM
34. 2026-08-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 256 DOM
35. 2026-08-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 255 DOM
36. 2026-08-06
    days on market $114,900 Active 254 DOM
37. 2026-08-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 253 DOM
38. 2026-08-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 252 DOM
39. 2026-08-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 251 DOM
40. 2026-07-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 248 DOM
41. 2026-07-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 247 DOM
42. 2026-07-29
    days on market $114,900 Active 246 DOM
43. 2026-07-27
    days on market $114,900 Active 244 DOM
44. 2026-07-25
    days on market $114,900 Active 242 DOM
45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $114,900 Active 241 DOM
46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $114,900 Active 240 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $114,900 Active 239 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $114,900 Active 238 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $114,900 Active 235 DOM
50. 2026-07-16
    days on market $114,900 Active 233 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − HOA: −$4,752
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$3,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$869
• After-tax cash flow: $-991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,780–$8,340 screening

This cozy 1-bedroom condo is in good condition with recent updates, ready for move-in. Potential for further improvements to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both New carpet — Freshens up living room and improves rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Williwaw Elementary F AK #139/156 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Clark Middle School F AK #35/36 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Bettye Davis East Anchorage High School F AK #51/61 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 314,993 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 36,458
• Household income: $79,314
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

---

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Two or more races 14% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 10% Pacific Islander 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.51%
• Current HPI: 257.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+84.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $119,500 AKMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $127,900 AKMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $134,900 AKMLS
• 2008-08-18 Listed $64,900 AKMLS