10055 Collingwood Ave · Dade City, FL 33525

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 423 Days on market

Built 1980 4,500 sqft lot Est $170k · 18% under $244/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this bright and beautifully maintained home in the desirable 55+ community of Palm Manor (Formerly Country Aire). Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and an enclosed Florida Room that is the place to be in the home—ideal for entertaining or relaxing year-round. Inside, the open-concept living and dining areas are enhanced by easy-care laminate flooring throughout. The large master suite includes a walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a walk-in shower, while the guest bath also offers a walk-in shower for added convenience. The kitchen is both functional and stylish, with updated cabinet doors and stainless steel appliances. Outside, a long carport provides covered

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• EASY-CARE LAMINATE FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Total building area and living area recorded in public records
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $244.94; Association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, pickleball and shuffleboard courts; Community features: buyer approval required, deed restrictions, clubhouse, pool; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK, breed and number limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on double-wide manufactured home structure
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Outdoor storage; Private, paved lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combined; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,807/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 423 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 423 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.86%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,496
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10047 Collingwood Ave	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+7%)	2mo	$150,000	$122	81
10029 Wellington Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+7%)	8mo	$182,500	$148	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $45,474
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $127,763
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$244
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $1,064

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10043 Collingwood Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.02mi
10030 Sterling Ave Unit 1234467P Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,744	$2.14	12d	1	0.03mi
10034 Hamp Dr Unit 1234478P Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	968	$3,164	$3.27	2d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $244 · $2,928/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 423 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 422 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 421 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 418 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 414 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 405 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $139,000
15. 2025-04-21
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 2005-08-04
    soldstatus $50,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$478/yr (+$40/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,695
• − Management: −$2,695
• − HOA: −$2,928
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $11,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,729
• After-tax cash flow: $10,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.