459 Timbercrest Cir SE · Varnamtown, NC 28422

$262,850

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,614 sqft · Townhouse · 167 Days on market

Built 2025 2,657 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* MOVE IN READY * Experience coastal modern living at Autumn Trail in this brand new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome, conveniently located 15-20 minutes from Oak Island and Holden Beach, with easy access to the historic waterfront town of Southport. Designed with versatility in mind, the open-concept floor plan features a desirable first-floor primary suite with high ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with quartz countertops and a 5-foot glass-enclosed shower. The kitchen is thoughtfully finished with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, crown and cap trim on the cabinets, a ceramic tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The dining area includes elegant judge's pan

Key facts

• Relaxing back patio
• $80 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• FINISHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• RELAXING BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail; Directions: Located just east of Highway 17 on Route 211
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $960 (about $80/month); Association amenities: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; On-site parking (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two stories; Entry level: 1; Has a view; Pets allowed; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); High ceilings; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $263k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,693/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 243% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,308 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-27,794
• Equity at exit: $39,192

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,898
• Equity at exit: $22,726

Cash invested: $73,598 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,943/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $262,850

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $322	+0% $231	+5% $140	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $125	+0% $231	+5% $337	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $298	base $231	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,712
• Closing costs: $7,886
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,850 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,850 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,850 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,850 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $262,850 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,850 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $262,850 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,850 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $262,850 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,850 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $262,850 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,850 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,850 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,850 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,850 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $262,850 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    price $262,850
18. 2026-05-14
    price $264,900
19. 2026-01-08
    price $282,850
20. 2026-01-03
    listed $297,850 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,943
• − Insurance: −$1,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,647
• Taxable loss: −$1,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $262,850 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $264,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $282,850 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $297,850 Hive MLS