2809 Tuam St · Houston, TX 77004

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1927 2,949 sqft lot $198/sqft · 26% below area Est $170k · 26% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique gem in a very UP and COMING area of 3rd Ward Houston. Property is conveniently located minutes from HWY 288 and I45. House is located just blocks from the renewed Emancipation Park and minutes from the University of Houston. Tons of rehab and new build are going in the area! This home does need some TLC but has great bones and tons of potential! This is a great opportunity for rehab or new build! Do not let this deal pass you up! THIS PROPERTY IS ALREADY APPROVED AND PERMITTED FOR BUILD. BUILD OUT BY ARCHITECH ATTACHED! ASK AGENT FOR DETAILS IF INTERESTED!! NO LOW-BALL OFFERS WILL BE ACCEPTED OR ENTERTAINED

Key facts

• 3rd ward houston
• Minutes from hwy 288
• 2,949 sq ft lot

Tags

• 3RD WARD HOUSTON
• MINUTES FROM HWY 288

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($894/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,517
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -26.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3324 Beulah St	0.40mi	2/1.0	648 (+2%)	6mo	$165,999	$256	72
2307 Winbern St	0.54mi	2/1.0	648 (+2%)	6mo	$135,000	$208	65
3338 Anita St	0.41mi	2/1.0	648 (+2%)	22mo	$499,000	$770	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-19,387
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-25,738
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77004

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,496/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2411 Bastrop St Unit 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$900	$1.38	22d	1	0.39mi
2407 Bastrop St Unit 1 R M Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.40mi
2675 Gray St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,057	$1.26	44d	6	0.42mi
3315 Reeves St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	657	$800	$1.22	5d	1	0.46mi
3339 Simmons St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	697	$1,000	$1.43	44d	1	0.48mi
2402 Berry St Unit 7 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,850	$2.64	44d	1	0.50mi
3019 Truxillo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	0.55mi
1887 Ennis St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$1,089	$1.67	24d	2	0.56mi
3121 Isabella St #4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$900	$1.80	44d	1	0.60mi
3122 Lucinda St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	591	$855	$1.45	44d	1	0.69mi
3122 Lucinda St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	591	$855	$1.45	22d	1	0.69mi
3122 Leeland St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	617	$960	$1.56	44d	1	0.69mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$877	$1.23	8d	1	0.70mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$877	$1.23	5d	1	0.70mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 3469 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$874	$1.23	3d	1	0.70mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 3469 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$912	$1.28	15d	1	0.70mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 3499 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$907	$1.27	44d	1	0.70mi
3448 Coyle St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	713	$866	$1.21	13d	1	0.71mi
3719 Elgin St Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1241	$1,112	$0.90	24d	14	0.79mi
3721 Tuam St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	44d	1	0.80mi
1601 Francis St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	44d	1	0.85mi
2425 Bell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,806	$3.26	3d	76	0.86mi
2649 Austin St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	716	$1,431	$2.00	44d	1	0.95mi
2649 Austin St Unit CL1 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	716	$1,431	$2.00	3d	1	0.95mi
2297 Austin St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	557	$1,400	$2.51	24d	1	0.98mi
2117 Austin St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,425	$1.94	44d	1	0.98mi
2515 Caroline St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	716	$1,431	$2.00	44d	1	1.00mi
2111 Austin St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,562	$2.60	5d	25	1.01mi
4804 Delano St Unit 2 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	5d	1	1.03mi
1907 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	620	$1,449	$2.34	17d	1	1.06mi
1907 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	620	$1,449	$2.34	44d	1	1.06mi
1711 Caroline St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,945	$3.28	2d	35	1.15mi
1825 San Jacinto St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,769	$3.20	2d	20	1.20mi
2598 Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	621	$1,174	$1.89	24d	1	1.20mi
806 Sampson St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	763	$1,650	$2.16	2d	18	1.21mi
2727 Travis St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,949	$2.82	2d	24	1.22mi
3823 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	430	$950	$2.21	44d	1	1.24mi
4001 Fannin St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1536	$2,479	$1.61	3d	16	1.25mi
3300 Main St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	558	$4,055	$7.27	5d	2	1.25mi
3300 Main St Unit 3342 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	558	$1,694	$3.04	11d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-04-17
    listed $125,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Unique gem in a very UP and COMING area of 3rd Ward Houston. Property is conveniently located minutes from HWY 288 and I45. House is located just blocks from the renewed Emancipation Park and minutes from the University of Houston. Tons of rehab and new build are going in the area! This home does need some TLC but has great bones and tons of potential! This is a great opportunity for rehab or new build! Do not let this deal pass you up! THIS PROPERTY IS ALREADY APPROVED AND PERMITTED FOR BUILD. BUILD OUT BY ARCHITECH ATTACHED! ASK AGENT FOR DETAILS IF INTERESTED!! NO LOW-BALL OFFERS WILL BE ACCEPTED OR ENTERTAINED

13. 2026-04-03
    historical
14. 2025-04-04
    status Active
15. 2025-03-31
    historical
16. 2025-01-22
    price $125,000
17. 2025-01-22
    status Active
18. 2025-01-16
    status Option Pending
19. 2024-05-16
    listed $148,800 Active
20. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus
21. 2022-12-23
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-12-21
    status Pending
23. 2022-12-20
    status Option Pending
24. 2022-11-13
    status Pending
25. 2022-11-03
    listed $95,000 Active
26. 2022-11-03
    historical $95,000
27. 2022-09-13
    historical
28. 2022-01-02
    price $152,800
29. 2021-08-30
    price $182,800
30. 2021-08-19
    listed $192,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,496 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,496 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,496
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$255
• After-tax cash flow: $1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,997
• Household income: $71,199
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.34%
• Current HPI: 199.6066
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $148,800 HARMLS
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-12-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Coming Soon $95,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-01-02 Price Changed $152,800 HARMLS
• 2021-08-30 Price Changed $182,800 HARMLS
• 2021-08-19 Listed $192,800 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,496 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.