164 Kinsley Rd · Pemberton, NJ 08068

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1952 5,998 sqft lot $241/sqft · 5% above area Est $162k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this clean and charming 2-bedroom ranch-style home, perfectly nestled in a growing community in Pemberton Township. This move-in-ready home has been beautifully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring, fresh paint throughout, and an updated bathroom, making it a truly turnkey opportunity. The property offers a multi-car driveway, a large backyard with a storage shed, and is located in a neighborhood with no HOA fees, low taxes, and USDA loan eligibility (0% down for qualified buyers). It sits on a spacious lot, offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, expansion, or investment. This home is an ideal option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for affordability, space, and potential. Conveniently located near Fort Dix Base, the area is rapidly developing—where location and value meet opportunity. As an added bonus, the seller is including a 1-year home warranty for extra peace of mind or money towards closing cost for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Brand new kitchen
• Large backyard
• Storage shed

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• MULTI CAR DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• NO HOA FEES
• LOW TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.9% in Pemberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#217 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,696
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Lemmon Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	1mo	$177,000	$257	91
912 Pemberton Browns Mills Rd	0.05mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	6mo	$187,500	$272	88
914 Pemberton Browns Mills Rd	0.06mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	6mo	$187,500	$272	88
199 Kinsley Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	705 (0%)	9mo	$164,900	$234	84
132 Lemmon Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	705 (0%)	10mo	$173,000	$245	83
112 Kinsley	0.27mi	2/1.0	710 (+1%)	6mo	$175,000	$246	81
142 Kinsley Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	13mo	$134,000	$194	81
128 Lemmon Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	13mo	$165,000	$239	76
217 Kinsley Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	11mo	$175,000	$254	75
220 Norcross Ln	0.28mi	2/1.0	690 (-2%)	21mo	$140,000	$203	66
123 Jane St	0.61mi	2/1.0	672 (-5%)	17mo	$235,000	$350	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,408
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $19,431
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08068

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $364	+0% $316	+5% $268	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $245	+0% $316	+5% $388	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $359	base $316	+0.5pp $272	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
219 Kinsley Rd Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	690	$2,000	$2.90	2d	1	0.25mi
118 Lemmon Ave Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	705	$1,700	$2.41	2d	1	0.29mi
224 Swarthmore Ct Pemberton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	0d	2	1.15mi
198 W Hampton St Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,838	$2.45	0d	2	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   price $169,900 1029-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

   Don't miss this clean and charming 2-bedroom ranch-style home, perfectly nestled in a growing community in Pemberton Township. This move-in-ready home has been beautifully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring, fresh paint throughout, and an updated bathroom, making it a truly turnkey opportunity. The property offers a multi-car driveway, a large backyard with a storage shed, and is located in a neighborhood with no HOA fees, low taxes, and USDA loan eligibility (0% down for qualified buyers). It sits on a spacious lot, offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, expansion, or investment. This home is an ideal option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for affordability, space, and potential. Conveniently located near Fort Dix Base, the area is rapidly developing—where location and value meet opportunity. As an added bonus, the seller is including a 1-year home warranty for extra peace of mind or money towards closing cost for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2026-02-05
   listed $175,000 Active 1029-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

   Don't miss this clean and charming 2-bedroom ranch-style home, perfectly nestled in a growing community in Pemberton Township. This move-in-ready home has been beautifully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring, fresh paint throughout, and an updated bathroom, making it a truly turnkey opportunity. The property offers a multi-car driveway, a large backyard with a storage shed, and is located in a neighborhood with no HOA fees, low taxes, and USDA loan eligibility (0% down for qualified buyers). It sits on a spacious lot, offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, expansion, or investment. This home is an ideal option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for affordability, space, and potential. Conveniently located near Fort Dix Base, the area is rapidly developing—where location and value meet opportunity. As an added bonus, the seller is including a 1-year home warranty for extra peace of mind or money towards closing cost for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today!

9. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $177,500
10. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $45,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,016 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,214/yr (+$101/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pemberton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #6053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,811

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 315.5986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+272.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $177,500 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,802 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.