10317 Russell Pines Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,651 sqft lot $123/sqft · 15% below area Est $352k · 15% under $96/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

Key facts

• Grand ceilings
• Backyard
• Private space

Tags

• PRIVATE SPACE
• LOFT ON SECONDARY LEVEL
• EYE CATCHING KITCHEN AREA
• GRAND CEILINGS
• BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,511 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,124
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -14.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 Scarlet Mountain Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,468 (+1%)	3mo	$290,000	$118	81
10507 Sutter Creek Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,566 (+5%)	2mo	$489,900	$191	64
9726 Shimmering Lakes Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,498 (+2%)	3mo	$295,000	$118	61
1906 Temple Grove Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,468 (+1%)	3mo	$386,550	$157	61
10831 Bodie Hills Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,598 (+7%)	0mo	$378,000	$145	59
1314 Eagle Pass Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,604 (+7%)	0mo	$339,900	$131	53
9715 Blue Sapphire Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-13%)	0mo	$272,500	$128	52
1834 Temple Grove Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-10%)	4mo	$364,990	$166	51
1702 Homewood Point Ln	0.44mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,718 (+12%)	4mo	$429,000	$158	48
1922 Temple Grove Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-10%)	4mo	$360,990	$164	48
9430 Grand Spark Dr	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,616 (+7%)	3mo	$289,000	$110	47
10819 Amador Peak Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,099 (-14%)	1mo	$360,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-81,944
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-132,049
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$907 /mo · $10,883/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,419

Max offer price $226,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-331	+0% $-416	+5% $-501	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-645	-5% $-530	+0% $-416	+5% $-302	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-265	-0.5pp $-340	base $-416	+0.5pp $-494	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	45d	1	0.30mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	45d	1	0.40mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,669	$1.61	0d	20	0.41mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	5d	1	0.42mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	0d	1	0.45mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	9d	1	0.49mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	22d	1	0.55mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.61mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	0.74mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	1d	1	0.76mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	45d	7	0.76mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	0.76mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.84mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	15d	1	0.87mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	24d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

17. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

18. 2026-04-27
    status Pending 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

19. 2026-02-05
    listed $300,000 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

20. 2026-02-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    WELCOME HOME to the beautiful community of Sierra Vista! You will be floored away from entry into the community. Enjoy themed nights, cozy firepit settings and much more at the community's Amenities Village, SPA Style! Your new home is equipped with 4 bedrooms, each with their own private space. Loft on secondary level laid to accommodate exercise sessions, leisure, entertainment or work from home opportunities! Don't stop at the eye catching kitchen area and grand ceilings in the living space, your backyard has tons of space to do as you choose with NO back neighbors! Take extra comfort in knowing you could possibly lock in the sellers current interest rate @ 3.125%. ASK HOW, you can qualify for an assumable loan!! DO NOT delay, schedule today and make your self right at HOME!

21. 2025-10-21
    listed $300,000 Active
22. 2025-10-08
    historical
23. 2025-07-07
    price $315,000
24. 2025-06-20
    price $332,000
25. 2025-05-23
    listed $337,900 Active
26. 2025-05-20
    historical
27. 2025-04-19
    price $337,900
28. 2025-03-22
    listed $345,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,883 · $907/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,883 · $907/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$10,883
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,777
• − Management: −$2,777
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and replacing the window screens.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $332,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $337,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $337,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listed $345,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+96.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,883 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.