25509 33rd Avenue Ct E · Elk Plain, WA 98387

$189,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1974 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity on a Spacious Cul-de-Sac Lot! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a shy 1/3-acre lot in a quiet cul-de-sac surrounded by newer stick-built homes. The property features a beautifully established yard filled with mature flowers and shrubs, creating a private and inviting setting. Enjoy outdoor living on the expansive tiered deck—perfect for entertaining. Two outbuildings, both with power, offer excellent space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The fully chain-link fenced yard includes two gated entrances for added convenience and security. Additional features include air conditioning, a paved driveway, and a detached carport. Ideal as a starter home, new build o

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Tiered deck
• Gated entrances

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• ESTABLISHED YARD
• TIERED DECK
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• CHAIN-LINK FENCED YARD
• GATED ENTRANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Quiet Village Div Two (lot 107)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 1 covered parking space; Uncovered parking for 5 vehicles; Driveway and off-street parking; RV parking available
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Power provided by local utility (TPU); Electric water heater; Electric energy source
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home on its own land; One story; Main-level entry; Faces west; Built (effective) 1985; Condition: fair
• Construction: Metal/vinyl exterior; Flat metal roof; Single wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Fully fenced yard; Outbuildings; RV parking; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved lot access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with tub and shower; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ductless heating; Cooling available
• Interior features: Dining room; Water heater (electric)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.0% in Elk Plain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#379 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, cost of living D+.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $178,553 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.09%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,628
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25405 37th Ave E	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-2%)	15mo	$379,950	$411	69
3011 253rd Street Ct E	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (+2%)	14mo	$335,000	$345	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $40,719
• Equity at exit: $28,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $137,713
• Equity at exit: $16,423

Cash invested: $53,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98387

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $189,950

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,175	-5% $1,122	+0% $1,068	+5% $1,014	+10% $960
Rent	-10% $846	-5% $957	+0% $1,068	+5% $1,179	+10% $1,290
Rate	-1.0pp $1,164	-0.5pp $1,116	base $1,068	+0.5pp $1,019	+1.0pp $969

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,488
• Closing costs: $5,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $189,950 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,950 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,950 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,950 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,950 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   price $189,950 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,950 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,950 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,950 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,950 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,950 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,950 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-04-10
    listed $199,950 Active
14. 2019-08-27
    soldstatus $135,000
15. 2019-08-20
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
16. 2019-07-21
    status Pending
17. 2019-07-14
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 111.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,640
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − Depreciation: −$5,526
• Taxable income: $10,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,469
• After-tax cash flow: $10,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Elk Plain

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #14927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Plain, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 49,940
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,774
• Household income: $106,872
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.94%
• Current HPI: 308.0462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+43.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-20 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-14 Listed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $881 · +27.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.