2106 Baynes · Sand Lake, MI 48750

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily · 294 Days on market

Built 1940 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot $124/sqft · 29% below area Est $167k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the peace and charm of forest living with this beautiful cabin nestled near the serene Au Sable River. A true northern retreat, this property offers the perfect outdoor lifestyle, whether it's morning coffee with the sound of nature or evening bonfires under the stars. Ideal for Buyers seeking a private getaway or full-time up-north Living. Schedule your showing today before this Home is gone!

Key facts

• Private getaway
• Cabin
• Au sable river

Tags

• FOREST LIVING
• CABIN
• AU SABLE RIVER
• PRIVATE GETAWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($653/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Sand Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#528 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,376
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -28.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5947 James St	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,036 (+8%)	10mo	$165,000	$159	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-15,799
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,224
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48750

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $96	+0% $54	+5% $13	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $11	+0% $54	+5% $98	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $85	base $54	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 294 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 291 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 290 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 289 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 276 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 275 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 274 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 273 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 272 DOM
18. 2025-08-31
    listed $119,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Escape to the peace and charm of forest living with this beautiful cabin nestled near the serene Au Sable River. A true northern retreat, this property offers the perfect outdoor lifestyle, whether it's morning coffee with the sound of nature or evening bonfires under the stars. Ideal for Buyers seeking a private getaway or full-time up-north Living. Schedule your showing today before this Home is gone!

19. 2025-08-30
    listed $119,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Escape to the peace and charm of forest living with this beautiful cabin nestled near the serene Au Sable River. A true northern retreat, this property offers the perfect outdoor lifestyle, whether it's morning coffee with the sound of nature or evening bonfires under the stars. Ideal for Buyers seeking a private getaway or full-time up-north Living. Schedule your showing today before this Home is gone!

20. 2025-08-30
    listed $119,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Escape to the peace and charm of forest living with this beautiful cabin nestled near the serene Au Sable River. A true northern retreat, this property offers the perfect outdoor lifestyle, whether it's morning coffee with the sound of nature or evening bonfires under the stars. Ideal for Buyers seeking a private getaway or full-time up-north Living. Schedule your showing today before this Home is gone!

21. 2025-08-22
    status Active
22. 2025-08-22
    status Active
23. 2025-07-31
    status Pending
24. 2025-07-31
    status Pending
25. 2025-07-31
    historical
26. 2025-06-18
    listed $119,000 Active
27. 2025-06-18
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming cabin in the woods is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sand Lake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #528
• US rank: #15900

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,457
• Population (ZIP): 9,281

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.75%
• Current HPI: 157.6759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-31 Listed $119,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-30 Listed $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $119,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-07-31 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-31 Pending — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-06-18 Listed $119,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-06-18 Listed $119,000 REALCOMP