461 Cardinal Dr · Jackson, GA 31064

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1989 0.45 ac lot $186/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Coming Soon"! Partial views of the lake!! Details to follow. Turtle Cove is an amazing lake community that features a golf course, newly renovated clubhouse with full restaurant & bar, large partially covered pool, pickleball courts & white sand beaches with 3 boat ramps.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($797/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#482 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $250k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,887 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,065
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $140,219
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $409,374
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,895

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $137	+0% $66	+5% $-4	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-12	+0% $66	+5% $145	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $130	base $66	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    pricestatusdays on market $249,900 Price Change 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    historical On Hold 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    "Coming Soon"! Partial views of the lake!! Details to follow. Turtle Cove is an amazing lake community that features a golf course, newly renovated clubhouse with full restaurant & bar, large partially covered pool, pickleball courts & white sand beaches with 3 boat ramps.

14. 2026-04-20
    soldstatus $90,850
15. 2026-04-19
    historical $275,000 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    "Coming Soon"! Partial views of the lake!! Details to follow. Turtle Cove is an amazing lake community that features a golf course, newly renovated clubhouse with full restaurant & bar, large partially covered pool, pickleball courts & white sand beaches with 3 boat ramps.

16. 1994-11-23
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,732/yr (+$144/mo · 305.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 34% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #482
• US rank: #22448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,730
• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+69.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $90,850 Public Records
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $275,000 GAMLS
• 1994-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $568 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.