10 Park Ln · Centralia, IL 62801

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 0.35 ac lot Est $103k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one-owner ranch style home is situated on a quiet street with cul-de-sac at one end. The home features an eat-in kitchen, living room, 3-bedrooms 1.5 baths and full basement complete with 39' x 13' rec room, laundry area, dry bar and exercise room. Each bedroom features a cedar-lined closet. A 24' x 13' screened-in porch perfect for early morning or evening relaxation is at the rear of the home. There is a one-car garage which was used as a workshop and a one-car carport with storage shed attached at the back. Behind the home is a multi-acre plot of vacant land owned by a neighbor offering privacy to your new home. New wiring and electrical box installed October, 2025. Bathrooms update

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Full basement
• Multi-acre plot

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• CEDAR-LINED CLOSET
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• MULTI-ACRE PLOT
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,094 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Park Ln	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (+2%)	2mo	$135,000	$132	82
409 S Pleasant Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	957 (-4%)	1mo	$97,500	$102	80
1014 E Broadway St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,030 (+3%)	6mo	$97,900	$95	65
525 Kristy Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+12%)	2mo	$125,000	$112	64
508 Marquis Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+9%)	5mo	$143,000	$131	63
525 Osage Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,102 (+10%)	8mo	$140,000	$127	62
875 Martin Luther King Jr Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+0%)	3mo	$75,000	$75	62
1206 E 2nd St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	11mo	$98,500	$103	59
44 S Edgewood Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	8mo	$116,000	$134	51
1100 E 2nd St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+12%)	9mo	$58,000	$52	50
1026 E Noleman St	0.50mi	3/1.0	875 (-12%)	10mo	$84,000	$96	46
935 E Mccord St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (+12%)	5mo	$84,000	$75	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,353
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,485
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $73	+0% $30	+5% $-14	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-15	+0% $30	+5% $74	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $61	base $30	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-21
   soldstatus $105,000
5. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed
6. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed
7. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed
8. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed
9. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
10. 2026-01-06
    historical
11. 2026-01-05
    historical
12. 2026-01-02
    status Pending
13. 2025-12-30
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
14. 2025-12-30
    status Pending
15. 2025-12-28
    status Active
16. 2025-12-22
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
17. 2025-12-17
    historical
18. 2025-12-17
    historical
19. 2025-12-10
    listed Active
20. 2025-11-04
    price
21. 2025-11-03
    listed Active
22. 2025-09-17
    status Active
23. 2025-09-17
    historical
24. 2025-09-17
    historical
25. 2025-09-10
    historical Under Contract
26. 2025-09-05
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$417
• After-tax cash flow: $772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-28 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $88 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.