1301 Colts Cir Unit E1 · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Condo · 49 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $204/sqft · 22% below area Est $306k · 22% under $666/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to carefree living in the highly desirable Carriage Park 55+ community in Lawrence Township. This warm and inviting third-floor condominium offers comfort, convenience, and a wonderful lifestyle in a beautifully maintained setting—complete with elevator access for easy, stress-free living. The secure building also features a first-floor mail room and a game room with a big-screen TV, providing additional space to relax and socialize. Step inside to a welcoming foyer complete with a coat closet, setting the tone for the thoughtfully designed interior. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, featuring recessed lighting, granite countertops, ceramic tile flooring, a double si

Key facts

• Welcoming foyer
• Game room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• FIRST-FLOOR MAIL ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• WELCOMING FOYER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by on-site property manager; Pets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $666.22; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, health club, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, elevator, exercise room, extra storage, meeting room, outdoor pool, and reserved/assigned parking

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with assigned/reserved spaces; Total of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat); Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Entry on 3rd floor; Senior community (55+)
• Construction: Brick construction; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Stall shower; Tub/shower combination; Carpeted areas; Ceiling fans; Combination dining and living area; Elevator access; Master bathroom; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (25.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,584 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,364
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -21.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-72,111
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-122,564
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$666
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,943

Max offer price $179,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-335	+0% $-418	+5% $-500	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-608	-5% $-513	+0% $-418	+5% $-322	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-356	base $-418	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Colts Cir Unit F Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1133	$2,300	$2.03	21d	1	0.01mi
2000 Colts Cir #2202 Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	21d	1	0.11mi
161 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	760	$1,758	$2.31	21d	4	0.63mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	21d	1	0.93mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$3,342	$2.39	14d	31	0.99mi
1321 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,500	$2.01	14d	1	1.00mi
1347 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	14d	1	1.00mi
1447 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	14d	1	1.01mi
1600 White Pine Cir Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	920	$1,880	$2.04	21d	3	1.18mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	21d	1	1.43mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $666 · $7,992/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $240,000 Active 2162-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − HOA: −$7,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and thoughtfully designed townhouse in a desirable community offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle with minimal repairs and maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Deep cleaning — A thorough cleaning can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Update light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Deep cleaning — A thorough cleaning can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Update light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS