1301 Colts Cir Unit E1 · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Condo · 100 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2006 Good condition Garage $204/sqft · 19% below area Est $296k · 19% under $666/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to carefree living in the highly desirable Carriage Park 55+ community in Lawrence Township. This warm and inviting third-floor condominium offers comfort, convenience, and a wonderful lifestyle in a beautifully maintained setting—complete with elevator access for easy, stress-free living. The secure building also features a first-floor mail room and a game room with a big-screen TV, providing additional space to relax and socialize. Step inside to a welcoming foyer complete with a coat closet, setting the tone for the thoughtfully designed interior.

Key facts

• Welcoming foyer
• Game room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• FIRST-FLOOR MAIL ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• WELCOMING FOYER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (25.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Lawrence — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 335 students, 13% FRL); Lawrence Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 797 students, 29% FRL); Lawrence High School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,207 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,584 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,938
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -18.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1109 Colts Cir Unit F2	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,133 (-4%)	1mo	$195,000	$172	92
1213 Colts Cir Unit Q	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,241 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$177	89
1324 Sierra Dr	0.97mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-2%)	0mo	$355,900	$309	61
1133 Halifax Pl	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	0mo	$370,000	$325	59
1044 Halifax Pl	0.90mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$330	59
1043 Halifax Pl	0.90mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	2mo	$365,000	$321	58
1115 Halifax Pl	0.93mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	2mo	$355,000	$312	58
1137 Halifax	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,241 (+5%)	1mo	$370,000	$298	55
802 Eagles Chase	0.79mi	2/2.0	1,254 (+6%)	1mo	$380,000	$303	53
239 Bakers Basin Rd	1.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (+2%)	2mo	$355,000	$295	51
120 Meriline	1.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,244 (+6%)	2mo	$273,000	$219	45
2293 Princeton Pike	1.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,294 (+10%)	2mo	$431,000	$333	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-72,111
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-122,564
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$666
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,943

Max offer price $179,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-335	+0% $-418	+5% $-500	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-608	-5% $-513	+0% $-418	+5% $-322	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-356	base $-418	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Colts Cir Unit F Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1133	$2,300	$2.03	70d	1	0.01mi
2000 Colts Cir #2202 Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	70d	1	0.11mi
161 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	760	$1,758	$2.31	70d	4	0.63mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	70d	1	0.93mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$3,342	$2.39	63d	31	0.99mi
1321 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,500	$2.01	63d	1	1.00mi
1347 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	63d	1	1.00mi
1447 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	63d	1	1.01mi
1600 White Pine Cir Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	920	$1,880	$2.04	70d	3	1.18mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	70d	1	1.43mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	63d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by on-site property managerPets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $666.22HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, health club, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trashCommunity amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, elevator, exercise room, extra storage, meeting room, outdoor pool, and reserved/assigned parking

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with assigned/reserved spacesTotal of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat)Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Entry on 3rd floorSenior community (55+)
• Construction: Brick constructionAbove-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveDishwasherGas oven/rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tubStall showerTub/shower combinationCarpeted areasCeiling fansCombination dining and living areaElevator accessMaster bathroomRecessed lightingWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitMain-floor laundry

HOA detail $666/mo · $7,992/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $240,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $240,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $240,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $240,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $240,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $240,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $240,000 Active 75 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $240,000 Active 74 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $240,000 Active 73 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $240,000 Active 72 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 71 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 70 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $240,000 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $240,000 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 41 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − HOA: −$7,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,895–$17,685 screening

This well-maintained and thoughtfully designed townhouse in a desirable community offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle with minimal repairs and maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Deep cleaning — A thorough cleaning can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Update light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ben Franklin Elementary F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lawrence Middle School F NJ #182/431 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Lawrence High School F NJ #149/399 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by on-site property managerPets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $666.22HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, health club, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trashCommunity amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, elevator, exercise room, extra storage, meeting room, outdoor pool, and reserved/assigned parking

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with assigned/reserved spacesTotal of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat)Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Entry on 3rd floorSenior community (55+)
• Construction: Brick constructionAbove-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveDishwasherGas oven/rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tubStall showerTub/shower combinationCarpeted areasCeiling fansCombination dining and living areaElevator accessMaster bathroomRecessed lightingWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitMain-floor laundry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS