1301 Colts Cir Unit E1 · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Condo · 147 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2006 Good condition Garage $195/sqft · 16% below area Est $275k · 16% under $666/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to carefree living in the highly desirable Carriage Park 55+ community in Lawrence Township. This warm and inviting third-floor condominium offers comfort, convenience, and a wonderful lifestyle in a beautifully maintained setting—complete with elevator access for easy, stress-free living. The secure building also features a first-floor mail room and a game room with a big-screen TV, providing additional space to relax and socialize. Step inside to a welcoming foyer complete with a coat closet, setting the tone for the thoughtfully designed interior.

Key facts

• Welcoming foyer
• Game room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• FIRST-FLOOR MAIL ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• WELCOMING FOYER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (20.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lawrence — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 335 students, 13% FRL); Lawrence Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 797 students, 29% FRL); Lawrence High School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,207 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,235 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,208
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -16.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1109 Colts Cir Unit F2	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,133 (-4%)	2mo	$195,000	$172	90
1213 Colts Cir Unit Q	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,241 (+5%)	3mo	$220,000	$177	88
1121 Colts Cir Unit P	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,075 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$200	83
1324 Sierra Dr	0.97mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-2%)	2mo	$355,900	$309	59
1133 Halifax Pl	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	2mo	$370,000	$325	58
1044 Halifax Pl	0.90mi	2/2.0	1,138 (-4%)	2mo	$375,000	$330	57
311 American Eagle Ct	0.77mi	2/2.0	1,230 (+4%)	1mo	$383,000	$311	57
1128 Halifax Pl	0.93mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+5%)	1mo	$394,000	$317	55
1137 Halifax	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,241 (+5%)	3mo	$370,000	$298	54
802 Eagles Chase	0.79mi	2/2.0	1,254 (+6%)	3mo	$380,000	$303	52
102 Glenview Dr	1.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,240 (+5%)	2mo	$453,999	$366	46
817 President Ave	1.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (+11%)	1mo	$485,000	$372	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-64,576
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-108,626
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$666
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $183,235

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-244	+0% $-323	+5% $-403	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-420	+0% $-323	+5% $-227	+10% $-130
Rate	-1.0pp $-207	-0.5pp $-265	base $-323	+0.5pp $-383	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Colts Cir Unit F Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1133	$2,300	$2.03	117d	1	0.01mi
2000 Colts Cir #2202 Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	117d	1	0.11mi
161 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrence Twp, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	861	$2,050	$2.38	6d	5	0.63mi
707 Eagles Chase Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,750	$1.83	6d	1	0.74mi
180 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,995	$2.70	5d	3	0.78mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	117d	1	0.93mi
1128 Halifax Pl Hamilton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,750	$2.21	0d	1	0.95mi
1133 Halifax Pl Hamilton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,400	$2.11	1d	1	0.96mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$3,342	$2.39	0d	33	0.99mi
1321 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,500	$2.01	109d	1	1.00mi
1421 Sierra Dr Hamilton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	0d	1	1.00mi
1347 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	109d	1	1.00mi
1447 Sierra Dr Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	109d	1	1.01mi
239 Bakers Basin Rd Lawrence Twp, NJ	3.0	1.0	1204	$5,500	$4.57	0d	1	1.16mi
1600 White Pine Cir Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1020	$2,250	$2.21	6d	5	1.18mi
31 Eldridge Ave Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	6d	1	1.23mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	117d	1	1.43mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	109d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by on-site property managerPets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $666.22HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, health club, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trashCommunity amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, elevator, exercise room, extra storage, meeting room, outdoor pool, and reserved/assigned parking

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with assigned/reserved spacesTotal of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat)Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Entry on 3rd floorSenior community (55+)
• Construction: Brick constructionAbove-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveDishwasherGas oven/rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tubStall showerTub/shower combinationCarpeted areasCeiling fansCombination dining and living areaElevator accessMaster bathroomRecessed lightingWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitMain-floor laundry

HOA detail $666/mo · $7,992/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $230,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $230,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $230,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $230,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 122 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $230,000 Active 121 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $230,000 Active 120 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $230,000 Active 119 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $230,000 Active 117 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $230,000 Active 116 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $230,000 Active 115 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $230,000 Active 114 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $230,000 Active 113 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $230,000 Active 112 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $230,000 Active 111 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $230,000 Active 110 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $230,000 Active 109 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 108 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $240,000 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $240,000 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $240,000 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $240,000 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $240,000 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 102 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $240,000 Active 88 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $240,000 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $240,000 Active 84 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$7,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$7,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,803
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,895–$17,685 screening

This well-maintained and thoughtfully designed townhouse in a desirable community offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle with minimal repairs and maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Deep cleaning — A thorough cleaning can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Update light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ben Franklin Elementary F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lawrence Middle School F NJ #182/431 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Lawrence High School F NJ #149/399 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by on-site property managerPets allowed with size/weight restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $666.22HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, health club, lawn maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, and trashCommunity amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, elevator, exercise room, extra storage, meeting room, outdoor pool, and reserved/assigned parking

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with assigned/reserved spacesTotal of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat)Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Entry on 3rd floorSenior community (55+)
• Construction: Brick constructionAbove-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveDishwasherGas oven/rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Soaking tubStall showerTub/shower combinationCarpeted areasCeiling fansCombination dining and living areaElevator accessMaster bathroomRecessed lightingWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unitMain-floor laundry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS