203 Upper Lakeview Dr · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 270 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot $273/sqft · 68% above area Est $282k · 12% over $161/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME SWEET HOME! Must see this charming 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, ranch-style home with finished basement and 2 car garage! Open-concept design provides an inviting space for family and friends to gather. Elegant, updated kitchen complete with luxurious quartz countertops and stainless appliances. Stunning hardwood floors throughout. Fully insulated attic with ample storage. Primary bedroom with en-suite on main level. Home is equipt with flitered air circulation system, and whole house water filter. Roof is only two years old, Newer septic mound, pump and hot water heater! Few hours from NY and Philidelphia. Close to skiing, spa, golf and Delaware River. ATV's allowed!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $315k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,823 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,752
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: 11.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
437 Westcolang Rd	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,236 (+7%)	4mo	$253,000	$205	71
307 Fawn Lake Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-6%)	9mo	$155,000	$142	53
241 Forest Ridge Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	18mo	$135,000	$130	40
108 Minnow Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+12%)	10mo	$325,000	$253	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $139,689
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $436,591
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,336/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,813

Max offer price $226,441

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-323	-5% $-412	+0% $-501	+5% $-590	+10% $-680
Rent	-10% $-673	-5% $-587	+0% $-501	+5% $-415	+10% $-329
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-421	base $-501	+0.5pp $-583	+1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   HOME SWEET HOME! Must see this charming 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, ranch-style home with finished basement and 2 car garage! Open-concept design provides an inviting space for family and friends to gather. Elegant, updated kitchen complete with luxurious quartz countertops and stainless appliances. Stunning hardwood floors throughout. Fully insulated attic with ample storage. Primary bedroom with en-suite on main level. Home is equipt with flitered air circulation system, and whole house water filter. Roof is only two years old, Newer septic mound, pump and hot water heater! Few hours from NY and Philidelphia. Close to skiing, spa, golf and Delaware River. ATV's allowed!

2. 2026-03-16
   price $315,000 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   HOME SWEET HOME! Must see this charming 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, ranch-style home with finished basement and 2 car garage! Open-concept design provides an inviting space for family and friends to gather. Elegant, updated kitchen complete with luxurious quartz countertops and stainless appliances. Stunning hardwood floors throughout. Fully insulated attic with ample storage. Primary bedroom with en-suite on main level. Home is equipt with flitered air circulation system, and whole house water filter. Roof is only two years old, Newer septic mound, pump and hot water heater! Few hours from NY and Philidelphia. Close to skiing, spa, golf and Delaware River. ATV's allowed!

3. 2025-09-16
   price $325,000 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   HOME SWEET HOME! Must see this charming 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, ranch-style home with finished basement and 2 car garage! Open-concept design provides an inviting space for family and friends to gather. Elegant, updated kitchen complete with luxurious quartz countertops and stainless appliances. Stunning hardwood floors throughout. Fully insulated attic with ample storage. Primary bedroom with en-suite on main level. Home is equipt with flitered air circulation system, and whole house water filter. Roof is only two years old, Newer septic mound, pump and hot water heater! Few hours from NY and Philidelphia. Close to skiing, spa, golf and Delaware River. ATV's allowed!

4. 2025-08-14
   listed $290,000 Active 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   HOME SWEET HOME! Must see this charming 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, ranch-style home with finished basement and 2 car garage! Open-concept design provides an inviting space for family and friends to gather. Elegant, updated kitchen complete with luxurious quartz countertops and stainless appliances. Stunning hardwood floors throughout. Fully insulated attic with ample storage. Primary bedroom with en-suite on main level. Home is equipt with flitered air circulation system, and whole house water filter. Roof is only two years old, Newer septic mound, pump and hot water heater! Few hours from NY and Philidelphia. Close to skiing, spa, golf and Delaware River. ATV's allowed!

5. 2018-03-16
   soldstatus $79,900
6. 2017-11-17
   soldstatus $79,900 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Just Listed ! This great Foreclosure won't last long. Spacious living room and dining room combo with eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms, with 2 full baths, family room with 1/2 bath, laundry hook-up, plenty of closet space, 2 car garage, large back deck for entertaining. 0.54 acre lot in amenities filled Fawn Lake Forest. , Baths: 1/2 Bath Lev 1, Baths: 2 Half Bath Lev 2

7. 2017-06-09
   listed $79,900 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Just Listed ! This great Foreclosure won't last long. Spacious living room and dining room combo with eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms, with 2 full baths, family room with 1/2 bath, laundry hook-up, plenty of closet space, 2 car garage, large back deck for entertaining. 0.54 acre lot in amenities filled Fawn Lake Forest. , Baths: 1/2 Bath Lev 1, Baths: 2 Half Bath Lev 2

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,156 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$821/yr (+$68/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,336
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$11,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+294.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $315,000 PWMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $325,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $290,000 PWMLS
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $79,900 PWMLS
• 2017-06-09 Listed $79,900 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,336 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.