40538 Sagefield Ct · Prairieville, LA 70737

$209,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 206 Days on market

Built 2014 2,178 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Stone backsplash
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STONE BACKSPLASH
• TILE FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.21%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,119
• List price: $209,500
• Delta: 1.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40435 Cross Ridge Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-2%)	3mo	$253,000	$178	83
40462 Cross Creek Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-3%)	3mo	$249,900	$178	82
40414 Fox Run Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-0%)	2mo	$262,000	$181	81
40445 Fox Run Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$179	78
40489 Cross Creek Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	7mo	$250,000	$178	77
40330 Coldwater Landing Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-3%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	74
40445 Sagefield Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-9%)	5mo	$190,000	$144	74
40312 Crestridge Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	71
40428 Fox Run Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-4%)	7mo	$232,500	$167	71
40363 Creekway Cove Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	4mo	$255,000	$181	71
14452 Tanya Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$169	58
40167 Trace Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+7%)	7mo	$272,000	$175	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,083
• Equity at exit: $31,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,825
• Equity at exit: $18,114

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,854/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $209,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40300 Creek Bend Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,000	$1.45	14d	1	0.42mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	23d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,500 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,500 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,500 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,500 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,500 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,500 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,500 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,500 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,500 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,500 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,500 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,500 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,500 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,500 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,500 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $209,500 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

17. 2026-03-31
    price $209,500 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

18. 2026-02-20
    price $214,500 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

19. 2026-02-20
    price $214,500 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

20. 2026-02-03
    status Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

21. 2026-02-03
    status Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

22. 2026-01-21
    status Pending 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

23. 2025-12-03
    price $215,000 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

24. 2025-12-03
    price $215,000 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

25. 2025-11-11
    listed $219,000 Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

26. 2025-11-11
    listed $219,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Move in ready home at the Villas at Sagefield that's zoned for Prairieville High School & in Flood Zone X! This garden style home has an open layout with plenty of natural light (neighbors only on one side) The kitchen has a large island with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stone backsplash. Tile floors run throughout the kitchen and living area with carpet in the bedrooms. The primary bedroom with ensuite is downstairs with the secondary bedrooms upstairs with a Jack & Jill bathroom. Outside is low maintenance with a patio area and storage shed along with a fully enclosed privacy fence.

27. 2024-07-26
    soldstatus $200,000
28. 2024-07-24
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2024-06-27
    status Pending
30. 2024-06-19
    price $210,000
31. 2024-06-11
    listed $220,000 Active
32. 2024-06-11
    listed $210,000
33. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus
34. 2024-05-27
    listed $1,800
35. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus
36. 2022-05-23
    listed $1,600
37. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus
38. 2022-04-13
    listed $1,600
39. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus
40. 2021-02-01
    listed $1,600
41. 2021-01-13
    soldstatus
42. 2020-12-28
    listed $1,600
43. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus
44. 2020-03-10
    soldstatus $170,000
45. 2020-03-06
    listed $1,600
46. 2020-03-05
    soldstatus Sold
47. 2020-02-28
    status Pending
48. 2020-02-14
    listed $179,900 Active
49. 2020-02-14
    listed $179,900
50. 2015-03-02
    soldstatus $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,854 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,854 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$1,854
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable income: $261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63
• After-tax cash flow: $3,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+31.8% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $209,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $209,500 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $214,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $214,500 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $215,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $215,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $219,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $219,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-24 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2024-06-27 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $210,000 GBRMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listed $210,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listed $220,000 GBRMLS
• 2024-06-04 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2024-05-27 Listed $1,800 GBRMLS
• 2022-06-01 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $1,600 GBRMLS
• 2022-05-12 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-04-13 Listed $1,600 GBRMLS
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-02-01 Listed $1,600 GBRMLS
• 2021-01-13 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2020-12-28 Listed $1,600 GBRMLS
• 2020-03-13 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2020-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-06 Listed $1,600 GBRMLS
• 2020-03-05 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2020-02-28 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2020-02-14 Listed $179,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-02-14 Listed $179,900 GBRMLS
• 2015-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $159,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $159,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,854 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.