5819 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21206

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1938 Est $214k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House is in need of full renovation. There are some water and sewer issues. Buyer to pay a short sale negotiation fee of $6,000.00 or 2% of the purchase price, whichever is greater, upon closing.

Key facts

• Built 1938
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hazelwood Elementary/Middle (math 0% / reading 9%, grade F, #803 of 860 statewide, top 94%, 526 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools at 81% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $150k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3612 Evergreen Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+2%)	1mo	$220,000	$161	69
4216 Berger Ave	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$83,500	$61	67
3711 Ina Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+5%)	2mo	$242,000	$173	67
5414 Belair Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,352 (+1%)	1mo	$218,900	$162	66
3723 Bayonne Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-10%)	0mo	$230,000	$192	62
6307 Fairdel Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+3%)	3mo	$272,000	$197	58
3708 Keene Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,452 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$152	58
4227 Berger Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+14%)	3mo	$98,123	$65	56
3827 Glenarm Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+15%)	3mo	$245,000	$160	56
5538 Whitwood Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,452 (+9%)	1mo	$195,000	$134	49
6018 Belle Vista Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+15%)	4mo	$245,000	$160	49
3802 Echodale Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,515 (+13%)	3mo	$242,500	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,574
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $58,624
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,203/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $511	+0% $469	+5% $427	+10% $384
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $390	+0% $469	+5% $548	+10% $628
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $507	base $469	+0.5pp $430	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	44d	1	0.17mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	0.21mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	0.25mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.47mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.56mi
3721 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.61mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.64mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.64mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	44d	1	0.65mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,550	$1.80	3d	5	0.69mi
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.70mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	0.75mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	12d	1	0.75mi
5307 Valiquet Ave Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1672	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.77mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	44d	1	0.79mi
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	24d	1	0.86mi
6410 Walther Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,995	$1.67	44d	7	0.88mi
3514 Ailsa Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	0.91mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	24d	1	0.95mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	969	$1,490	$1.54	5d	1	0.97mi
3807 Fleetwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	937	$1,550	$1.65	5d	1	0.97mi
5938 Clayton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	17d	1	1.01mi
3412 Fleetwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,195	$1.35	44d	1	1.04mi
4718 Blue Ridge Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,400	$1.38	12d	1	1.05mi
4517 Woodlea Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	3d	1	1.06mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	17d	1	1.11mi
3309 Southern Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	1	1.14mi
5253 Cedgate Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.23mi
6042 Barstow Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	736	$1,527	$2.07	3d	1	1.23mi
5248 Darien Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1584	$2,100	$1.33	44d	1	1.24mi
2805 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	1.30mi
3158 Woodring Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,950	$1.30	24d	1	1.31mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,463	$1.97	3d	1	1.31mi
2900 Ailsa Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	1.32mi
2911 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	21d	1	1.35mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	44d	3	1.35mi
8133 Bartholomew Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	24d	1	1.39mi
2807 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	1.40mi
4905 Greencrest Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	44d	1	1.44mi
2804 Christopher Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2017-12-02
   historical
4. 2017-12-02
   historical Withdrawn
5. 2017-11-15
   listed Active
6. 2017-11-15
   listed $75,000
7. 2017-11-15
   historical Withdrawn
8. 2017-10-16
   listed Active
9. 2017-10-16
   listed $50,000 Active
10. 2015-11-23
    soldstatus $94,000 Sold
11. 2015-11-23
    soldstatus $94,000
12. 2015-10-20
    historical Withdrawn
13. 2015-10-20
    historical
14. 2015-10-12
    status Contract
15. 2015-10-12
    historical
16. 2015-09-24
    listed Active
17. 2015-09-24
    listed $99,900
18. 2015-09-16
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2015-06-23
    price $99,900
20. 2015-04-22
    price $114,900
21. 2014-12-02
    price $124,900
22. 2014-09-05
    listed $134,900 Active
23. 2014-09-05
    listed $99,900
24. 2014-08-20
    historical Withdrawn
25. 2014-08-20
    historical
26. 2014-08-05
    price
27. 2014-07-11
    price
28. 2014-06-30
    price
29. 2014-06-03
    price
30. 2014-05-22
    listed Active
31. 2014-05-22
    listed $134,900
32. 1996-08-16
    soldstatus $58,000
33. 1996-08-15
    soldstatus $58,000
34. 1996-06-13
    historical
35. 1995-11-04
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,203 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,203 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,203
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $4,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+130.8% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-12-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-15 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-11-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-15 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-10-16 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-23 Sold (MLS) $94,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-23 Sold (MLS) $94,000 MRIS
• 2015-10-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-10-12 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-10-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-09-24 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-06-23 Price Changed $99,900 MRIS
• 2015-04-22 Price Changed $114,900 MRIS
• 2014-12-02 Price Changed $124,900 MRIS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $134,900 MRIS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-08-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-05 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-07-11 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-06-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-06-03 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-05-22 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-05-22 Listed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-15 Sold (MLS) $58,000 MRIS
• 1996-06-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-11-04 Listed $65,000 MRIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,203 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.