4504 Hemlock Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 328 Days on market

Built 1978 8,276 sqft lot $135/sqft · 8% below area Est $180k · 8% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Dedicated a/c unit
• Bonus room
• Converted garage

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• DEDICATED A/C UNIT
• PRIME LOCATION
• CONVENIENT NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO I-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.68%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,316
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -8.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5407 Deborah Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+0%)	8mo	$189,000	$154	78
5315 Gayla Ln	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-2%)	6mo	$90,000	$75	78
5316 Lorraine Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+6%)	2mo	$179,000	$137	75
5105 Deborah Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-8%)	13mo	$210,000	$187	66
5400 Linda Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-8%)	11mo	$177,999	$159	64
5408 Lillian St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-12%)	5mo	$110,000	$101	59
3501 Old Oaks Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+6%)	1mo	$220,000	$169	59
5406 Louise St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-9%)	9mo	$165,000	$147	57
5407 Shirley St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-10%)	10mo	$179,000	$161	55
5411 Hazel St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-9%)	14mo	$150,118	$134	51
4903 Ripple Creek Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+13%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	48
5002 Fawndale Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+13%)	14mo	$280,000	$202	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,413
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $296
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3400 Shady Hill Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$3,295	$3.25	1d	21	0.71mi
2906 W Baker Rd Unit 901 Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,185	$1.11	43d	1	0.84mi
2898 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,216	$1.36	43d	1	0.99mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,775	$1.80	4d	28	1.06mi
3300 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,415	$1.73	1d	16	1.18mi
2200 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,664	$1.93	1d	13	1.22mi
2257 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,525	$1.51	43d	1	1.30mi
3723 Emmett Hutto Blvd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 314 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $165,000 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Pending 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Pending 311 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Pending 310 DOM
13. 2026-04-07
    price $165,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

14. 2025-09-11
    price $170,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

15. 2025-08-14
    price $171,999 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

16. 2025-08-06
    price $174,999 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

17. 2025-07-25
    listed $179,999 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Home with Bonus Room – Prime Location! Don't miss this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a converted garage that serves as a versatile bonus room—perfect for a study, office, or guest space—complete with its own dedicated A/C unit for year-round comfort. Located in a convenient neighborhood near shopping centers, medical facilities, and with easy access to I-10, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. ?? Call us today to schedule your private showing!

18. 2000-03-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$687/yr (+$57/mo · 29.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $3,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $171,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $174,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $179,999 HARMLS
• 2000-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,332 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.