11018 Aaron Fish Rd · Macclenny, FL 32040

$320,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2021 3.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 4b/2b home on 3 acres. This is a foreclosed home and is being sold as is. Very large and in excellent condition.

Key facts

• 3.02 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer listed as not available
• Home design: Mobile home; One level; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Workshop on property; Dirt road access; Property used for horses and residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $310k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.3% in Macclenny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#355 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $320k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,083
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $51,232
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32040

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,508

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $885	-5% $795	+0% $704	+5% $614	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $436	-5% $570	+0% $704	+5% $839	+10% $973
Rate	-1.0pp $866	-0.5pp $786	base $704	+0.5pp $621	+1.0pp $537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10933 N Runway Cir Glen Saint Mary, FL	4.0	2.5	2283	$3,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $320,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,999 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,999 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,999 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,999 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,999 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $375,000 Active
18. 2016-03-03
    soldstatus $119,000
19. 2012-05-17
    soldstatus $95,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Gorgeous 4b/2b home on 3 acres. This is a foreclosed home and is being sold as is. Very large and in excellent condition.

20. 2012-03-01
    listed $99,900 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Gorgeous 4b/2b home on 3 acres. This is a foreclosed home and is being sold as is. Very large and in excellent condition.

21. 2007-06-12
    historical 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Motivated seller!!! DOGS!!! MUST CALL BEFORE WALKING THE PROPERTY. NO value in mobile home. Nice high and dry 3 acre lot with improvements.

22. 2007-06-04
    soldstatus $43,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Motivated seller!!! DOGS!!! MUST CALL BEFORE WALKING THE PROPERTY. NO value in mobile home. Nice high and dry 3 acre lot with improvements.

23. 2007-04-03
    listed $49,900 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Motivated seller!!! DOGS!!! MUST CALL BEFORE WALKING THE PROPERTY. NO value in mobile home. Nice high and dry 3 acre lot with improvements.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $3,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $7,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker
• NCES district ID: 1200060
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,301
• Composite: 43.67/100
• National rank: #2958
• State rank: #28 of 73 in FL

Livability — Macclenny

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #6194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,546
• Population (ZIP): 8,754

Population outlook (Baker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,607 people
• By 2030: 27,452 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 26,637 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 25,103 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 19,576 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 11,664 · -57.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.2% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -57.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+58.6 2008: R+57.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.72%
• Current HPI: 216.151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+651.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $375,000 realMLS
• 2016-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 realMLS
• 2012-03-01 Listed $99,900 realMLS
• 2007-06-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-06-04 Sold (MLS) $43,000 realMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $49,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.