315 457th Trl · Stanchfield, MN 55080

$385,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 5.35 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

Key facts

• 5.35 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#891 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cambridge-Isanti Public School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #96 of 301 in MN (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $385k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $385,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-23,240
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $30,133
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55080

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,334/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,216

Max offer price $385,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $833	-5% $724	+0% $615	+5% $506	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $457	+0% $615	+5% $773	+10% $930
Rate	-1.0pp $809	-0.5pp $713	base $615	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $385,000 Active
3. 2026-04-16
   historical $385,000
4. 2020-05-20
   soldstatus $255,000 Sold 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

5. 2020-05-20
   soldstatus $255,000

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

6. 2020-04-08
   status Pending 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

7. 2020-04-02
   historical Contingent - Inspection 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

8. 2020-03-23
   listed $259,900 Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Country Living just minutess from Cambridge that is located on a dead end road in a small quiet neighborhood with 5+ acres. Come see this easy to show, very well maintained home that has a spacious open feel with vaulted ceilings, 3 bedrooms with a walk through master bath, and a walkout basement. Come take a look today!

9. 2011-04-06
   soldstatus $146,115
10. 2011-04-05
    soldstatus $146,115 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Newer split entry home. Very well maintained and ready to move in. All appliances included. Vaulted ceilings. Hardwood floors. Oak cabinets. All on 5 plus acres. Great dead end road for privacy.

11. 2011-03-18
    historical 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Newer split entry home. Very well maintained and ready to move in. All appliances included. Vaulted ceilings. Hardwood floors. Oak cabinets. All on 5 plus acres. Great dead end road for privacy.

12. 2010-08-21
    listed $159,900 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Newer split entry home. Very well maintained and ready to move in. All appliances included. Vaulted ceilings. Hardwood floors. Oak cabinets. All on 5 plus acres. Great dead end road for privacy.

13. 2010-08-12
    historical
14. 2010-04-12
    listed $184,900
15. 2010-04-12
    historical
16. 2009-10-25
    listed $199,900
17. 2003-06-25
    soldstatus $184,000
18. 2003-05-19
    historical
19. 2003-03-26
    historical
20. 2003-03-25
    listed $179,999
21. 2002-10-21
    listed $179,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,334 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,334 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,334
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,834
• − Management: −$3,834
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable income: $1,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$297
• After-tax cash flow: $7,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambridge-Isanti Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2707410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,340
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2764
• State rank: #96 of 301 in MN

Livability — Stanchfield

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #891
• US rank: #26330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,281

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.23%
• Current HPI: 336.3158
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+113.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $385,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $385,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-20 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-23 Listed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $146,115 Public Records
• 2011-04-05 Sold (MLS) $146,115 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-21 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-12 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-25 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-25 Sold (MLS) $184,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-25 Listed $179,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-21 Listed $179,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,334 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.