13209 Kestrel Ave · Horizon City, TX 79928

$224,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2012 5,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 13209 Kestrel Ave in Horizon City. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a highly desirable downstairs primary suite complete with a full bath and walk-in closet. The main level offers an open living and dining area that flows into the kitchen, creating a comfortable space for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs you'll find two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a spacious loft perfect for a second living area, game room, or home office. The backyard provides room to relax, grill, and enjoy without heavy maintenance. Conveniently located just minutes from the Eastlake area, Eastlake Marketplace, restaurants, shopping, and schools. Approximately 10-12 mi

Key facts

• Spacious loft
• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 2012

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• BACKYARD ROOM TO RELAX
• MINUTES FROM EASTLAKE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1492
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Fan hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Refrigerated cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Game/hobby room; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Double-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($142/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Horizon Heights El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 925 students, 66% FRL); Col John O Ensor Middle (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,173 students, 70% FRL); Eastlake H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,851 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2098 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,771 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,761
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,469
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2098
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,182/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,053

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $76	+0% $12	+5% $-52	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-70	+0% $12	+5% $94	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $69	base $12	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13231 Kestrel Ave Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,595	$1.15	16d	1	0.07mi
13136 Wellington Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,700	$1.54	25d	1	0.28mi
13142 Saker Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,600	$1.35	25d	1	0.28mi
13113 Wellington Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,700	$1.83	16d	1	0.34mi
13172 Willitoft Rd El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,450	$1.69	45d	1	0.42mi
392 Frodsham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1801	$2,075	$1.15	45d	1	0.44mi
393 Frodsham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	13d	1	0.45mi
13470 Everingham St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	25d	1	0.48mi
13539 Doncaster St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,850	$1.21	45d	1	0.56mi
13122 Salterton Ave Unit NA El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.56mi
13131 Oakhampton Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	25d	1	0.62mi
781 Croxdale St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	0.70mi
13130 Emerald Isle St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,300	$1.41	45d	1	0.70mi
13520 Eastlake Blvd Horizon City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,850	$1.92	4d	9	0.75mi
13090 Beccles St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,750	$1.48	12d	1	0.84mi
945 Penrith St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$1,950	$1.07	16d	1	0.93mi
737 Sculcoates St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,735	$1.28	45d	1	0.95mi
12911 Aberdare Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1838	$2,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.98mi
12878 Clevedon St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1872	$2,250	$1.20	45d	1	0.99mi
247 Herts Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,900	$1.16	13d	1	0.99mi
223 Notts Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1437	$1,680	$1.17	46d	1	1.09mi
12874 Woolstone Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$1,995	$1.13	45d	1	1.11mi
12832 Haxby Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,800	$1.12	4d	1	1.12mi
12934 Terrington Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	1.13mi
12926 Terrington Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.14mi
12716 Middlesbrough Ave Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.5	1825	$2,595	$1.42	13d	1	1.15mi
13709 Paseo Sereno Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	25d	1	1.18mi
13677 Holbeck St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,060	$1.10	45d	1	1.24mi
12805 Kingsbury Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,250	$1.28	5d	1	1.27mi
213 Epsom Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	1.29mi
12407 Joe Gomez Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1639	$1,700	$1.04	16d	1	1.34mi
508 Covington Ridge Way El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,450	$1.24	5d	1	1.34mi
544 Cedarwood Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	1.38mi
12253 Holy Springs Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.42mi
141 Nonap Rd El Paso, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,980	$1.97	4d	9	1.43mi
12964 Runway Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	3.0	1410	$1,695	$1.20	46d	1	1.44mi
12956 Runway Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,795	$1.24	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-22
   price $224,900
4. 2026-03-25
   price $227,000
5. 2026-03-09
   price $235,000
6. 2026-03-02
   listed $245,000 Active
7. 2023-07-20
   soldstatus
8. 2017-01-18
   historical
9. 2016-10-22
   status Pending
10. 2016-10-19
    price $107,000
11. 2016-09-15
    listed $117,000 Active
12. 2014-10-21
    historical
13. 2013-12-18
    listed $150,470

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,182 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,182 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,182
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,900 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $227,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $235,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $245,000 GEPARMLS
• 2023-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-18 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2016-10-22 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2016-10-19 Price Changed $107,000 GEPARMLS
• 2016-09-15 Listed $117,000 GEPARMLS
• 2014-10-21 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2013-12-18 Listed $150,470 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,182 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.