3195 Plato Way · Badger, AK 99705

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2021 $156/sqft · 46% below area Est $260k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Main house & acirc; & euro; & trade; s Exterior is finished, 2 bedrooms , 1 bathroom, interior is approximately 80% finished (mostly needs Sheetrock walling). Water is hooked up to private well twenty feet from house. The house is livable. Electric by GVEA averaging $100-200 month. Balcony to front door. Was heated by Toyo stove and has 300 gallon tank on a stand. There is another small dry cabin included, heated by wood stove, total acreage 1.46. Selling as is.

Key facts

• Private well
• Front door balcony
• Wood stove heating

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• FRONT DOOR BALCONY
• SMALL DRY CABIN
• WOOD STOVE HEATING
• TOTAL ACREAGE 1.46

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,365
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -46.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Plato Way	0.06mi	2/1.0	848 (-6%)	2mo	$150,000	$177	86
3208 South Athena Cir	0.20mi	2/1.5	888 (-1%)	13mo	$260,000	$293	76
3252 Plato Way	0.18mi	2/1.0	960 (+7%)	22mo	$139,900	$146	62
3334 Saturn Way	0.44mi	2/1.5	990 (+10%)	10mo	$219,900	$222	52
3199 Homer Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (-13%)	20mo	$235,000	$301	49
3134 Storey Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,004 (+12%)	19mo	$250,000	$249	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $29,338
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $106,069
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,578/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2084 Jackson St #2 North Pole, AK	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	43d	1	1.12mi
2056 Jackson St Unit 12 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$3,000	$3.87	43d	1	1.13mi
2056 Jackson St Apt 11 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$1,900	$2.45	43d	1	1.13mi
2066 Jackson St Unit 1 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	43d	1	1.14mi
2921 Glacier State Dr North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 468-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $140,000 Active 231-char remark
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $140,000 Active 461-char remark
20. 2007-10-31
    soldstatus
21. 1997-06-18
    listed $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,578 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,578
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $7,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $7,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-18 Listed $35,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,578 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.