3195 Plato Way · Badger, AK 99705

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Other public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition $156/sqft · 46% below area Est $260k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Main house & acirc; & euro; & trade; s Exterior is finished, 2 bedrooms , 1 bathroom, interior is approximately 80% finished (mostly needs Sheetrock walling). Water is hooked up to private well twenty feet from house. The house is livable. Electric by GVEA averaging $100-200 month. Balcony to front door. Was heated by Toyo stove and has 300 gallon tank on a stand. There is another small dry cabin included, heated by wood stove, total acreage 1.46. Selling as is.

Key facts

• Private well
• Front door balcony
• Wood stove heating

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• FRONT DOOR BALCONY
• SMALL DRY CABIN
• WOOD STOVE HEATING
• TOTAL ACREAGE 1.46

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.83%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,365
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -46.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Plato Way	0.06mi	2/1.0	848 (-6%)	3mo	$150,000	$177	85
3208 South Athena Cir	0.20mi	2/1.5	888 (-1%)	14mo	$260,000	$293	75
2046 Tops St	0.78mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	4mo	$335,000	$372	62
3334 Saturn Way	0.44mi	2/1.5	990 (+10%)	12mo	$219,900	$222	51
3424 Sharon Rd	1.30mi	2/1.0	950 (+6%)	10mo	$239,900	$253	48
3335 Sharon Rd	1.23mi	2/2.0	844 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$249	47
3063 Badger Rd	1.21mi	2/1.5	960 (+7%)	9mo	$325,000	$339	44
1787 Hollowell Rd	0.85mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+17%)	0mo	$299,900	$286	40
3199 Snow Shoe Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+24%)	11mo	$289,900	$259	35
3011 Arcturus Ct	0.85mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	14mo	$299,900	$298	28
2877 Horseshoe Way	1.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+17%)	10mo	$295,000	$281	27
3451 Sharon Rd	1.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-15%)	13mo	$172,000	$224	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $29,338
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $106,069
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,578/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $785	+0% $746	+5% $706	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $662	+0% $746	+5% $829	+10% $913
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $781	base $746	+0.5pp $710	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2084 Jackson St #2 North Pole, AK	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	93d	1	1.12mi
2056 Jackson St Unit 12 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$3,000	$3.87	93d	1	1.13mi
2056 Jackson St Apt 11 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$1,900	$2.45	93d	1	1.13mi
2066 Jackson St Unit 1 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	93d	1	1.14mi
2921 Glacier State Dr North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	93d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $140,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $140,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    remarks 468-char remark
47. 2026-06-13
    days on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 31 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,578 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,578
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $7,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $7,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $22,500–$40,500 screening

The home is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, primarily to the exterior siding and interior sheetrock walls. Painting and finishing the interior will significantly increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — The siding shows some wear and tear.
• Minor Interior sheetrock walls — The interior walls are mostly finished, but there is some visible sheetrock work.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Install flooring — Installing flooring will make the home livable and increase its appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Complete interior sheetrock walls — Finishing the interior sheetrock walls will make the home move-in ready and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Middle North Pole Middle School F AK #21/36 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High North Pole High School F AK #33/61 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 101,607 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-18 Listed $35,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,578 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.