1161 Lake Henry Rd · Mount Cobb, PA 18436

$114,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1161 features several key updates, including a durable rubber roof installed in 2022, a new electric panel added in 2015, and electric heat throughout. A new well pump was installed in 2024. The current rent is $725, with strong potential to increase to $950-$1,000. The long-term tenants, in place since 2016, would like to remain.

Key facts

• New well pump
• New electric panel
• Durable rubber roof

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 4.27 ACRES
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC METERS
• DURABLE RUBBER ROOF
• NEW ELECTRIC PANEL
• ELECTRIC HEAT
• NEW WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1 acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Built in 1970; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Year built 1970
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front and back yard; Paved state road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Propane cooktop; Free‑standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms (includes primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Full and partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#642 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $115k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.12%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $100,449
• Equity at exit: $103,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $266,085
• Equity at exit: $223,418

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $626	+0% $594	+5% $561	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $458	-5% $526	+0% $594	+5% $662	+10% $729
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $623	base $594	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 332-char remark
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $114,999 Active 332-char remark
3. 2011-11-16
   soldstatus $54,090
4. 2003-09-18
   soldstatus $36,220

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,586 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $5,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $5,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Cobb

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #6245

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+217.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-16 Listed $114,999 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2011-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,090 Public Records
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $36,220 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,356 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.