309 Fm 1219 · Grandfalls, TX 79779

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,748 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1952 Poor condition 1.21 ac lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect commercial property located 15 minutes from I-20. 1.205 acres and in a small town so no deed restrictions. 3/2 House perfect for employee housing & 1200 sqft detached office. 4 car covered carport and ample uncovered parking on property. PRICED TO SELL VERY QUICKLY!!!!

Key facts

• 1.205 acres
• 15 minutes from i-20
• Detached office

Tags

• 15 MINUTES FROM I-20
• 1.205 ACRES
• NO DEED RESTRICTIONS
• DETACHED OFFICE
• 4 CAR COVERED CARPORT
• AMPLE UNCOVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,364 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Grandfalls-Royalty ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,104 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,299
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $76,163
• Equity at exit: $97,014

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79779

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $140,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Perfect commercial property located 15 minutes from I-20. 1.205 acres and in a small town so no deed restrictions. 3/2 House perfect for employee housing & 1200 sqft detached office. 4 car covered carport and ample uncovered parking on property. PRICED TO SELL VERY QUICKLY!!!!

16. 2025-04-28
    price $250,000
17. 2024-01-19
    price $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including structural, exterior, and interior work. Immediate attention is needed to stabilize the property and improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Metal siding — Significant rust and wear
• Major Roof — Visible rust and wear
• Minor Flooring — Worn but not damaged
• Major Paint — Worn and peeling
• Major Bathrooms — Dirty and in need of cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior painting — Enhances interior appearance and value
• Both Roof repair — Critical for structural integrity and value
• Both Bathroom cleaning and updates — Improves functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Metal siding · Significant rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn but not damaged	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Worn and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · Dirty and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$60,500–203,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑
• Both Roof repair — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
• Both Bathroom cleaning and updates — Improves functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grandfalls-Royalty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,082
• Composite: 20.31/100
• National rank: #13816
• State rank: #1104 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Grandfalls

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #23479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-47.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $140,000 ODMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $250,000 ODMLS
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $265,000 ODMLS