8943 Forest Oak Dr · Myrtle Grove, FL 32506

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2003 4,791 sqft lot Est $188k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Patio home
• Roof replacement
• New hvac system

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• PATIO HOME
• 10 MINUTES FROM NAS PENSACOLA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($134/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Myrtle Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Myrtle Grove Elementary School (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 446 students, 80% FRL); Jim C. Bailey Middle School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 1,159 students, 57% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,248 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8943 Forest Oak Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,128 (0%)	10mo	$185,000	$164	92
413 Pine Crescent Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-4%)	4mo	$198,400	$183	84
404 Pine Crescent Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	7mo	$180,000	$167	79
428 Shadow Way Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	12mo	$175,000	$162	78
421 Oak Knoll Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	12mo	$185,000	$173	77
498 Bay Pine Villa Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	9mo	$175,000	$164	76
417 Pine Crescent Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	10mo	$186,000	$174	76
424 Pine Crescent Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	12mo	$186,000	$174	75
400 Oak Knoll Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	14mo	$170,000	$159	72
400 Shadow Way Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-5%)	18mo	$176,000	$165	69
550 Tampico Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+12%)	8mo	$222,000	$176	61
513 Bay Pine Villa Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+10%)	24mo	$192,000	$155	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,068
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,926
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,109/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,558

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $62	+0% $11	+5% $-40	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-51	+0% $11	+5% $73	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $57	base $11	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Wood Crest Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	25d	1	0.08mi
150 S Crow Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,450	$1.33	25d	1	0.72mi
8 Villa Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,362	$1.36	23d	6	1.08mi
8121 Lillian Hwy #70 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.36mi
7591 W Highway 98 Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,781	$2.04	15d	9	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2025-09-08
   soldstatus $185,000
2. 2025-09-05
   soldstatus $185,000 Sold 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

3. 2025-09-04
   status Pending
4. 2025-08-05
   status Pending 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

5. 2025-07-23
   price $179,900 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

6. 2025-07-23
   price $179,900

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

7. 2025-06-20
   listed $185,000 Active
8. 2025-06-10
   listed $185,000 Active 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Conveniently located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home offers the perfect combination of comfort, location, and potential. Recent updates include a new HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof replacement in 2021, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking for a smart investment, this home is full of promise. Bring your vision and make it your own!

9. 2024-10-17
   soldstatus $170,000 Sold 1135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

   Located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola's main gate and 15 minutes from the west gate, this cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home is the perfect blend of convenience and potential. The master bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a private retreat, while the two additional bedrooms are located towards the front of the home and share a hall bathroom. Open floor plan features a living room that overlooks the eat-in kitchen, complete with a pantry and appliances including a stove, fridge, and dishwasher. Inside laundry room with washer/dryer hookups for added convenience. The home features a 2021 roof, while the Homeowners Association takes care of front yard maintenance, leaving you more time to enjoy the beautiful Gulf Coast lifestyle. The backyard includes an open patio, perfect for relaxing while watching the famous Blue Angels soar overhead! This home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. While it does need some updating, this home is packed with potential. This home is ready for your vision, don’t miss this chance to make it your own!

10. 2024-10-14
    status Pending 1135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

    Located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola's main gate and 15 minutes from the west gate, this cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home is the perfect blend of convenience and potential. The master bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a private retreat, while the two additional bedrooms are located towards the front of the home and share a hall bathroom. Open floor plan features a living room that overlooks the eat-in kitchen, complete with a pantry and appliances including a stove, fridge, and dishwasher. Inside laundry room with washer/dryer hookups for added convenience. The home features a 2021 roof, while the Homeowners Association takes care of front yard maintenance, leaving you more time to enjoy the beautiful Gulf Coast lifestyle. The backyard includes an open patio, perfect for relaxing while watching the famous Blue Angels soar overhead! This home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. While it does need some updating, this home is packed with potential. This home is ready for your vision, don’t miss this chance to make it your own!

11. 2024-09-20
    historical Contingent 1135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

    Located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola's main gate and 15 minutes from the west gate, this cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home is the perfect blend of convenience and potential. The master bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a private retreat, while the two additional bedrooms are located towards the front of the home and share a hall bathroom. Open floor plan features a living room that overlooks the eat-in kitchen, complete with a pantry and appliances including a stove, fridge, and dishwasher. Inside laundry room with washer/dryer hookups for added convenience. The home features a 2021 roof, while the Homeowners Association takes care of front yard maintenance, leaving you more time to enjoy the beautiful Gulf Coast lifestyle. The backyard includes an open patio, perfect for relaxing while watching the famous Blue Angels soar overhead! This home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. While it does need some updating, this home is packed with potential. This home is ready for your vision, don’t miss this chance to make it your own!

12. 2024-08-27
    listed $175,000 Active 1135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

    Located just 10 minutes from NAS Pensacola's main gate and 15 minutes from the west gate, this cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom patio home is the perfect blend of convenience and potential. The master bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a private retreat, while the two additional bedrooms are located towards the front of the home and share a hall bathroom. Open floor plan features a living room that overlooks the eat-in kitchen, complete with a pantry and appliances including a stove, fridge, and dishwasher. Inside laundry room with washer/dryer hookups for added convenience. The home features a 2021 roof, while the Homeowners Association takes care of front yard maintenance, leaving you more time to enjoy the beautiful Gulf Coast lifestyle. The backyard includes an open patio, perfect for relaxing while watching the famous Blue Angels soar overhead! This home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. While it does need some updating, this home is packed with potential. This home is ready for your vision, don’t miss this chance to make it your own!

13. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus $140,000
14. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold
15. 2021-07-13
    historical Contingent
16. 2021-07-09
    status Active
17. 2021-06-19
    historical Contingent
18. 2021-06-16
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,109
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Myrtle Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #14805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 1,170
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-05 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ECAR
• 2025-09-04 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $179,900 ECAR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $179,900 PARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $185,000 ECAR
• 2024-10-17 Sold (MLS) $170,000 PARMLS
• 2024-10-14 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) $140,000 PARMLS
• 2021-07-13 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2021-06-19 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $135,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,109 · +97.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.