42 Otsego Dr · Newport News, VA 23602

$218,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1986 1,306 sqft lot Est $196k · 12% over $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Cozy fire pit
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• COZY FIRE PIT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (New Denbrook Station Association); Association fee $70 monthly; Trash pickup included

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned/reserved 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Attached townhouse; 2 stories; Slab foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composite roof; Slab foundation; Storage shed on property
• Exterior features: Patio; Back wood fence; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No bedroom and full bathroom on first floor; 5 total rooms (includes attic)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Security system; Scuttle access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-847/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kiln Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 618 students, 93% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,502 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1159 Old Denbigh Blvd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$200,000	$174	91
12734 Woodside Ln	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$224,900	$192	90
43 Otsego Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,104 (-4%)	5mo	$200,000	$181	88
12791 Tahiska Ln	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-0%)	2mo	$145,000	$126	87
12773 Woodside Ln	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-0%)	4mo	$195,000	$170	86
12813 Tahiska Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-0%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	85
15 Otsego Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$217,500	$170	77
1 Oneonta Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$198,500	$155	75
1035 Old Denbigh Blvd	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,273 (+10%)	3mo	$220,000	$173	64
12760 St James Pl Unit A	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	1mo	$147,000	$146	48
12762 Saint James Pl Unit C	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	2mo	$121,500	$120	48
12757 Saint James Pl Unit F	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	1mo	$147,000	$146	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,168
• Equity at exit: $32,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,220
• Equity at exit: $18,892

Cash invested: $61,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23602

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,560/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $206,036

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-9	+0% $-71	+5% $-132	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-143	+0% $-71	+5% $2	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-15	base $-71	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,625
• Closing costs: $6,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	44d	1	0.03mi
55 Oneonta Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,750	$1.52	24d	1	0.08mi
11 Betty Lee Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,495	$1.50	24d	1	0.15mi
13 Sally Ann Pl Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,150	$1.87	4d	1	0.25mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	8d	1	0.59mi
2055 Stanford Ln Unit 00 2055332 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,120	$2.25	24d	1	0.68mi
1 Cedarwood Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,711	$1.63	44d	1	0.95mi
804 Newday Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	15d	1	0.99mi
12851 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	44d	1	1.03mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 510305 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,699	$1.51	4d	1	1.07mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 520307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,614	$1.44	44d	1	1.07mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 621307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,499	$1.33	44d	1	1.07mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 601303 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,649	$1.47	24d	1	1.07mi
12663 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.07mi
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,802	$1.77	3d	1	1.17mi
218 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	993	$2,150	$2.17	24d	1	1.17mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	21d	1	1.20mi
153 Windsor Castle Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,450	$1.47	11d	1	1.23mi
305 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,500 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $218,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $219,500 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus $180,000
17. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

18. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

19. 2023-06-12
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

20. 2023-06-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

21. 2023-06-12
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

22. 2023-06-08
    listed $165,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

23. 2023-06-08
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

24. 2023-06-08
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bed, 1.5 bath townhouse in New Denbrook Station! This spacious and inviting home is the perfect place to create lasting memories. You'll be delighted by the beautiful patio that includes a cozy fire pit for year-round entertainment. The kitchen will satisfy all of your culinary needs with granite countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Plus, the master bedroom offers plenty of room for rest and relaxation. Make this charming townhouse yours today!

25. 2007-10-26
    soldstatus $134,000
26. 1994-05-10
    soldstatus $57,900
27. 1985-12-03
    soldstatus $58,500
28. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $514,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,560
• − Insurance: −$1,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$6,356
• Taxable loss: −$4,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 42,265
• Household income: $79,475
• Rent vs Own: 46.7% rent · 53.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.28%
• Current HPI: 283.0889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.22%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-57.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $220,000 REINMLS
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CBRAR
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $180,000 WMLS
• 2023-06-12 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-06-12 Pending — CBRAR
• 2023-06-12 Pending — WMLS
• 2023-06-08 Listed $165,000 CBRAR
• 2023-06-08 Listed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2023-06-08 Listed $165,000 WMLS
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 1985-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $514,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,560 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.