18441 Rigsby Rd · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1985 1.06 ac lot Est $199k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy access to Tampa and Gulf beaches on this high and dry acreage. Close to County Line Rad, Suncoast Expressway, Hwy 41 and Hwy 52 in growing Spring Hill. Great opportunity to own an acre MOL of land with newer well and septic tank in place. A single wide mobile home is on the property and does convey with the sale. The existing mobile home is in poor condition, but could POSSIBLY be made live-able. As the population of Florida explodes, opportunities to purchase parcels of this size may be few and far between, Use this for an investment property, starter home, getaway, or build that great country home. Buyer is responsible for confirming conformance of septic tank and well for intended purpose.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Renovated bedroom
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• RENOVATED BEDROOM
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS 1.06 ACRE PARCEL
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WELL AND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• RARE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Water available; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Other roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Wood and other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Mini-split cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in kitchen; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $155k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,912
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19037 Bowman Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	6mo	$205,000	$222	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,900
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $36,359
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,218/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-03-03
    price $155,000
15. 2026-01-03
    listed $160,000 Active
16. 2021-09-22
    soldstatus $70,000
17. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Easy access to Tampa and Gulf beaches on this high and dry acreage. Close to County Line Rad, Suncoast Expressway, Hwy 41 and Hwy 52 in growing Spring Hill. Great opportunity to own an acre MOL of land with newer well and septic tank in place. A single wide mobile home is on the property and does convey with the sale. The existing mobile home is in poor condition, but could POSSIBLY be made live-able. As the population of Florida explodes, opportunities to purchase parcels of this size may be few and far between, Use this for an investment property, starter home, getaway, or build that great country home. Buyer is responsible for confirming conformance of septic tank and well for intended purpose.

18. 2021-08-27
    status Pending 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Easy access to Tampa and Gulf beaches on this high and dry acreage. Close to County Line Rad, Suncoast Expressway, Hwy 41 and Hwy 52 in growing Spring Hill. Great opportunity to own an acre MOL of land with newer well and septic tank in place. A single wide mobile home is on the property and does convey with the sale. The existing mobile home is in poor condition, but could POSSIBLY be made live-able. As the population of Florida explodes, opportunities to purchase parcels of this size may be few and far between, Use this for an investment property, starter home, getaway, or build that great country home. Buyer is responsible for confirming conformance of septic tank and well for intended purpose.

19. 2021-08-20
    listed $75,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Easy access to Tampa and Gulf beaches on this high and dry acreage. Close to County Line Rad, Suncoast Expressway, Hwy 41 and Hwy 52 in growing Spring Hill. Great opportunity to own an acre MOL of land with newer well and septic tank in place. A single wide mobile home is on the property and does convey with the sale. The existing mobile home is in poor condition, but could POSSIBLY be made live-able. As the population of Florida explodes, opportunities to purchase parcels of this size may be few and far between, Use this for an investment property, starter home, getaway, or build that great country home. Buyer is responsible for confirming conformance of septic tank and well for intended purpose.

20. 2006-09-13
    historical
21. 2006-07-17
    listed $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,218 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,218
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $4,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-15 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-20 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-17 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,218 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.