16940 SE 115th Ave · The Villages, FL 32195

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1986 3.00 ac lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $149k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Acres, partially cleared, flag lot. Privacy, yet close to the Villages and all it has to offer. This property includes a single wide, handyman opportunity! 2 bed 2 full bath, newer water heater and newer A/C unit. Tenant has vacated and most items are included with sale. "AS-IS" no repairs will be done.

Key facts

• No hoa
• 3 acres
• 3 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• 3 ACRES
• NO HOA
• 3 YEAR OLD HVAC SYSTEM
• 3 YEAR OLD WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: A1; Total lot size about 3 acres (2 to less than 5 acres range)
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a double wide manufactured home structure
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Other appliance included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,726
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 0.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,240
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $38,125
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32195

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $472	+0% $430	+5% $388	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $358	+0% $430	+5% $502	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $468	base $430	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	1.31mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,991	$1.85	22d	36	1.36mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,150	$2.09	22d	38	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   price $149,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-05-08
   price $159,000 392-char remark
8. 2026-04-28
   listed $165,000 Active 392-char remark
9. 2023-02-03
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   3 Acres, partially cleared, flag lot. Privacy, yet close to the Villages and all it has to offer. This property includes a single wide, handyman opportunity! 2 bed 2 full bath, newer water heater and newer A/C unit. Tenant has vacated and most items are included with sale. "AS-IS" no repairs will be done.

10. 2022-12-20
    status Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    3 Acres, partially cleared, flag lot. Privacy, yet close to the Villages and all it has to offer. This property includes a single wide, handyman opportunity! 2 bed 2 full bath, newer water heater and newer A/C unit. Tenant has vacated and most items are included with sale. "AS-IS" no repairs will be done.

11. 2022-09-23
    price $160,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    3 Acres, partially cleared, flag lot. Privacy, yet close to the Villages and all it has to offer. This property includes a single wide, handyman opportunity! 2 bed 2 full bath, newer water heater and newer A/C unit. Tenant has vacated and most items are included with sale. "AS-IS" no repairs will be done.

12. 2022-08-22
    listed $175,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    3 Acres, partially cleared, flag lot. Privacy, yet close to the Villages and all it has to offer. This property includes a single wide, handyman opportunity! 2 bed 2 full bath, newer water heater and newer A/C unit. Tenant has vacated and most items are included with sale. "AS-IS" no repairs will be done.

13. 1995-02-20
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $4,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 83,973
• Population (ZIP): 3,282

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.54%
• Current HPI: 271.6087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+831.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-03 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.