8174 Birch St · Windsor, CA 95492

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $148k · 18% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this well maintained 2-bed 2-bathroom home in Windsor Mobile Country Club Senior 55+ Park. Built in 2002, this home just received a fresh coat of Interior paint, and brand-new carpet in the living room and bedrooms. Both bedrooms have walk in closets for extra storage. The Kitchen features a standalone gas range and oven, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator. Outside there is a small area in the back for gardening in between two storage sheds. Windsor Mobile Country Club is an active senior community with organized events, two dog parks, and a swimming pool. Great Windsor location, close to the popular Windsor town green, Bowling Alley, Russian River Brewery. Just a few minutes t

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Gardening area
• Standalone gas range

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSETS
• STANDALONE GAS RANGE
• TWO DOG PARKS
• SWIMMING POOL
• GARDENING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Windsor mobile home community (Windsor Mobile Country Club); Land lease: Yes
• Financial info: Land lease (monthly land lease amount applies)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; 1 parking space
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirt; Manufactured by Champion Home Builders Company (Southwood NT)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven and range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas oven and range; Free-standing refrigerator; Gas water heater; Microwave; Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.04%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,680
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1036 Maple Dr	0.15mi	2/1.5	1,056 (+2%)	3mo	$150,000	$142	86
8133 C St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	12mo	$195,000	$188	86
8155 Willow St	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	5mo	$145,000	$129	82
8132 Willow St	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	22mo	$135,000	$130	79
8114 B St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	16mo	$261,500	$262	76
8167 Willow St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	13mo	$155,000	$141	76
8109 B St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	3mo	$199,000	$173	76
8184 E St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	24mo	$78,000	$74	72
708 Sequoia Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	20mo	$155,000	$135	61
8095 A St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,133 (+9%)	24mo	$195,000	$172	55
219 N Heidi Ct #79	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	4mo	$180,000	$161	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $49,687
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $143,564
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $1,226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	13d	1	0.18mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	13d	1	0.25mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	0.40mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	43d	1	0.62mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	43d	1	0.76mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,828	$4.93	7d	14	0.99mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	1.19mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	43d	1	1.24mi
1130 Windsor River Rd Windsor, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	43d	1	1.45mi
211 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	814	$3,095	$3.80	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 231.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,735
• − Management: −$2,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $12,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,011
• After-tax cash flow: $11,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $175,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $402 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.