276 Hazelwood Ave · Lacy-Lakeview, TX 76705

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1984 0.28 ac lot Est $217k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 276 Hazelwood Avenue, a 3 bed, 1 bath property nestled in the Chalk Bluff neighborhood of Waco. Features include an attached carport and a storage shed within the fenced-in back yard. While this property is in need of extensive renovation, it is a wonderful opportunity for seasoned investors and first time fixer-uppers alike.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Fenced-in back yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FENCED-IN BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Lacy-Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Connally ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #781 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Connally El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 374 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 68% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.84%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,350
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
294 Northwood Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	8mo	$195,000	$177	78
545 Ouida Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+13%)	2mo	$325,000	$250	61
205 Oakview Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+15%)	22mo	$250,000	$189	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,157
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,789
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,243/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $305	+0% $268	+5% $231	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $209	+0% $268	+5% $328	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $301	base $268	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Ouida Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1382	$1,500	$1.09	22d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-09-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-16
   status Active
3. 2025-04-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-03-21
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 1993-04-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,243 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,243
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$297
• After-tax cash flow: $2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connally ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814970
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,388
• Composite: 16.9/100
• National rank: #9141
• State rank: #781 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lacy-Lakeview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,616
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 1993-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,243 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.