303 Roxboro Rd · Vermilion, OH 44089

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1950 6,098 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming & Meticulously Maintained Cottage on a Double Lot in Vermilion-on-the-Lake! Nestled in the heart of the desirable Vermilion-on-the-Lake community, this beautifully maintained cottage sits on a spacious double lot just moments from the clubhouse, beach, and park. Built with durable block construction featuring a concrete overlay and attractive cedar accents, this home offers both character and lasting quality. Step inside to a cozy living room highlighted by a classic brick fireplace, perfect for relaxing after a day at the lake. The home features three comfortable bedrooms, one full bath, and an inviting kitchen with newer cabinetry. Kitchen appliances, along with the wash

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Newer roof
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• COVERED CONCRETE PATIO
• HEATED WORKSHOP
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available (not included per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt and concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Above-grade living area reported as 860 (source: public records)
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Rear porch, front porch and terrace; Outbuilding with shed(s), storage and workshop; Wood privacy fencing in the backyard; Backyard is private and close to clubhouse; Rectangular lot approximately 70 x 90

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning; One masonry fireplace in the family room
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vermilion Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #670 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Sailorway Middle School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B+, #221 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 507 students, 36% FRL); Vermilion High School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade D, #427 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 674 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $230k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,156 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,640
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Parkland Blvd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+0%)	0mo	$140,000	$162	89
304 Parkland Blvd	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (+6%)	1mo	$167,000	$183	77
387 Harcourt Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	912 (+6%)	2mo	$209,900	$230	77
236 Devonshire Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	936 (+9%)	9mo	$180,000	$192	72
321 Overlook Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	912 (+6%)	11mo	$116,000	$127	70
279 Kensington Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	884 (+3%)	6mo	$110,000	$124	70
218 Roxboro Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	736 (-14%)	4mo	$160,000	$217	68
278 Mornington Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	884 (+3%)	17mo	$140,450	$159	68
285 Devonshire Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	794 (-8%)	18mo	$125,000	$157	67
281 Overlook Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (+14%)	8mo	$169,700	$174	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-31,752
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,796
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,263/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,781

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $153	+0% $88	+5% $23	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $13	+0% $88	+5% $162	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $146	base $88	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $229,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,162/yr (+$97/mo · 92.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,263
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$2,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $1,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1432.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $229,900 MLSNOW
• 2008-11-07 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2008-05-10 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 2006-11-18 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2006-08-18 Listed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2002-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1996-04-09 Sold (MLS) $48,500 MLSNOW
• 1995-10-15 Listed $49,500 MLSNOW
• 1987-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,263 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.