73A Foxberry Dr · University at Buffalo, NY 14068

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 871 sqft lot Est $203k · at est. $198/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom, 1 full bath condominium located in the quiet community of Foxberry Village. In unit laundry. Living room has a sliding door that leads to a private patio. 2nd bedroom could also be used as a den or office. Beautiful grounds. Community pool. Pets allowed. Easy access to 990.

Key facts

• Newly poured patio
• First floor living
• Private entrance

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK IN SHOWER
• NEWLY POURED PATIO
• NEW ENTRYWAY FLOORING
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $200k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,010
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87 Foxberry Dr Unit A	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,010 (0%)	8mo	$229,500	$227	94
10A Foxberry Dr S	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,010 (0%)	2mo	$195,000	$193	92
79B Foxberry Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	962 (-5%)	2mo	$184,000	$191	88
75B Foxberry Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	10mo	$199,700	$192	84
3A Foxberry Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	7mo	$162,500	$156	84
101 Foxberry #a Dr Unit A	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	10mo	$214,800	$207	84
27B Foxberry Dr Unit B	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	16mo	$236,200	$227	82
37 B Foxberry Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	16mo	$182,000	$175	81
25B Foxberry Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	962 (-5%)	14mo	$203,000	$211	80
116 Foxberry B Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	895 (-11%)	4mo	$180,000	$201	74
21B Foxberry Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	21mo	$219,900	$211	73
78 B Foxberry Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	895 (-11%)	8mo	$169,000	$189	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,654
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,741
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14068

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,027/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$198
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,897

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $224	+0% $167	+5% $110	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $84	+0% $167	+5% $250	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $218	base $167	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3160 Millersport Hwy Getzville, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,172	$1.81	17d	2	0.57mi
2675 Millersport Hwy Getzville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$1,870	$1.55	4d	9	0.60mi
3253 Millersport Hwy Getzville, NY	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,995	$1.87	3d	26	0.88mi
227 Sunshine Dr Unit 227 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,799	$1.93	3d	1	1.25mi
212 Sunshine Dr Unit Left Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,099	$1.61	3d	1	1.27mi
2791 N Forest Rd Getzville, NY	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,400	$2.07	4d	1	1.32mi
2635 N Forest Rd Getzville, NY	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,395	$1.79	11d	1	1.33mi
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type A Getzville, NY	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,199	$1.93	3d	1	1.33mi
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type G Getzville, NY	1.0	1.0	705	$1,699	$2.41	3d	1	1.33mi
91 Marine Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.0	1291	$2,150	$1.67	45d	1	1.35mi
2250 N French Rd Getzville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	814	$1,700	$2.09	3d	1	1.35mi
133 Sunshine Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	17d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $198 · $2,376/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2018-12-28
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2015-10-30
   soldstatus $108,000
5. 2014-08-28
   soldstatus $95,000
6. 2014-08-10
   soldstatus $95,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom, 1 full bath condominium located in the quiet community of Foxberry Village. In unit laundry. Living room has a sliding door that leads to a private patio. 2nd bedroom could also be used as a den or office. Beautiful grounds. Community pool. Pets allowed. Easy access to 990.

7. 2014-06-20
   listed $103,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom, 1 full bath condominium located in the quiet community of Foxberry Village. In unit laundry. Living room has a sliding door that leads to a private patio. 2nd bedroom could also be used as a den or office. Beautiful grounds. Community pool. Pets allowed. Easy access to 990.

8. 2006-07-10
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$676/yr (+$56/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,027
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$2,376
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $2,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,827
• Population (ZIP): 8,504

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Asian 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Scotch-Irish 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.31%
• Current HPI: 314.5567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-10 Sold (MLS) $95,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-06-20 Listed $103,000 WNYREIS
• 2006-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,027 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.