1650 Stony Valley Dr · Ponder, TX 76259

$250,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot $117/sqft · 6% above area Est $235k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* MULTIPLE OFFERS, FINAL AND BEST DUE BY SATURDAY MAY 16 AT 10 AM * Situated on a full acre in desirable Ponder with no city taxes, this spacious 5 bedroom, 3 bath home offers the perfect blend of country living and modern comfort. Surrounded by open fields with no immediate neighbors behind, you’ll enjoy peaceful views, privacy, and some of the best sunsets around right from your backyard. Inside, the flexible floor plan provides plenty of room for entertaining, working from home, or multigenerational living. The large living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. Spacious bedrooms offer comfort for everyone, while the ov

Key facts

• Large living area
• No city taxes
• Flexible floor plan

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• NO CITY TAXES
• OPEN FIELDS
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Stony Hills Ph 2; Parcel / assessor information available
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 covered spaces; Driveway parking (gravel)
• Security: Video surveillance present
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Private sewer / septic; Electricity connected; Cable available; Asphalt access
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level; Preowned (built in 2003)
• Construction: Metal siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built 2003
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Cleared, landscaped lot with few trees and large backyard grass; Located on a cul-de-sac in a subdivision; Acreage lot (about 1 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, dual sinks, walk-in closet and built-in cabinets
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room with built-in cabinets, drip/dry area and space for a freezer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.7% in Ponder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.96%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,900
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 6.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1470 Stony Vly	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (0%)	14mo	$289,900	$136	74
1649 Stony Valley Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,304 (+8%)	3mo	$234,900	$102	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,999
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $28,266
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $535	+0% $464	+5% $393	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $362	+0% $464	+5% $566	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $528	base $464	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13409 Granite Park Rd Ponder, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,545	$1.58	0d	1	0.88mi
13514 Mineral Rd Ponder, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$1,900	$0.92	45d	1	0.97mi
13624 Mineral Rd Ponder, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,195	$1.38	0d	1	0.99mi
13812 Musselshell Dr Ponder, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,025	$0.99	0d	1	1.11mi
13832 Musselshell Dr Ponder, TX	4.0	3.0	2054	$2,300	$1.12	3d	1	1.14mi
2409 Stillwater Dr Ponder, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$1,895	$0.92	45d	1	1.15mi
8011 Big Timber Trl Ponder, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$1,995	$0.97	0d	1	1.18mi
8011 Big Timber Trl Ponder, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,195	$1.07	14d	1	1.18mi
8012 White Sulphur Rd Ponder, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Option Contract 1045-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $250,000 Active 1045-char remark
3. 2003-03-17
   soldstatus
4. 2002-12-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,691/yr (+$224/mo · 142.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$378
• After-tax cash flow: $5,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2003-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.