18212 Ginavale Ln · Eden Prairie, MN 55346

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1973 0.36 ac lot Est $444k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.6% in Eden Prairie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#21 in MN, #575 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Eden Prairie Public School District (urban): math 61% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #13 of 301 in MN (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $285k implies a 506% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $285,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.33%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,538
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7160 Muirfield Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,873 (+4%)	13mo	$460,750	$246	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-10,851
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,181
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55346

• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,281/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,494

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18705 Partridge Cir Eden Prairie, MN	4.0	3.0	1268	$3,195	$2.52	43d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $285,000
2. 2026-05-26
   historical
3. 1977-05-01
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,281 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,281 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,281
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,067
• − Management: −$3,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $2,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $6,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eden Prairie Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2714220
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $95,212
• Composite: 59.93/100
• National rank: #879
• State rank: #13 of 301 in MN

Livability — Eden Prairie

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eden Prairie, MN
• City population: 44,463
• Population (ZIP): 18,602

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 8% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -269.24%
• Current HPI: 230.5792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+506.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1977-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,281 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.