5188 Greenshade Grove Ave · Apopka, FL 32712

$339,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 2,610 sqft lot $245/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Catalina II offers a thoughtfully designed open-concept first floor with ample space for entertaining and everyday living. This two-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a rear-loading 2-car garage for added convenience and curb appeal. The chef-inspired kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a refrigerator, a walk-in pantry, and a generous breakfast bar that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. Upstairs, the private owner’s suite serves as a relaxing retreat, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and an ensuite bath. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Id

Key facts

• Chef-worthy kitchen
• Corner unit
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT GROUND FLOOR
• CHEF-WORTHY KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CORNER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty provided; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $2,940; Association fee required
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $245 (includes pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities); Community features: community mailbox, dog park, playground, pool, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Fiber optics available; Underground utilities; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion Feb 28, 2026); East facing; Entry on front porch
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab; New construction (builder: Mattamy Homes, model: Catalina II)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry inside (upper level)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Apopka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#594 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zellwood Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 55% FRL); Wolf Lake Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,194 students, 45% FRL); Wekiva High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,207 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,544 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-75,268
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-111,498
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32712

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $305,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-99	+0% $-195	+5% $-291	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-300	+0% $-195	+5% $-91	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-109	base $-195	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3276 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$2,500	$1.49	23d	1	0.05mi
3239 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,400	$1.63	3d	1	0.07mi
4216 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	4.0	2.5	1678	$2,450	$1.46	3d	1	0.08mi
4208 Sadler Rd Unit 1 Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,300	$1.56	9d	1	0.09mi
4208 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,395	$1.62	9d	1	0.09mi
4141 Conjunction Way Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,480	$1.39	12d	1	0.11mi
3172 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,375	$1.46	25d	1	0.13mi
4124 Sadler Rd Apopka, FL	4.0	2.5	1678	$2,350	$1.40	23d	1	0.17mi
3107 Gardenia Reserve St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,350	$1.44	19d	1	0.19mi
4197 Jespersen St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,700	$1.27	23d	1	0.19mi
4132 Jespersen St Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	2120	$2,550	$1.20	23d	1	0.20mi
3979 Capital Reef Way Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,545	$1.20	16d	1	0.51mi
3941 Cuyahoga Valley Ct Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	2138	$2,650	$1.24	23d	1	0.59mi
3875 Denali Dr Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,450	$1.41	23d	1	0.63mi
4560 Dreamy Day St Apopka, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	0d	55	0.81mi
4555 Sabastian Springs Ln Apopka, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,299	$2.36	0d	61	0.85mi
3422 Orange Rose Loop Apopka, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,150	$1.85	6d	1	0.91mi
6114 Galloping Dr Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1816	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	1.33mi
6126 Galloping Dr Apopka, FL	3.0	2.5	1816	$2,200	$1.21	0d	1	1.34mi
5414 Hayloft Dr Apopka, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,549	$1.38	19d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $339,990
3. 2026-02-15
   listed $347,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,438/yr (+$120/mo · 103.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$8,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,990
• After-tax cash flow: $-350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apopka

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #11020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apopka, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 109,852
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,583
• Household income: $108,734
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 19% Black 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.12%
• Current HPI: 283.4441
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listed $347,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid