992 Mill St · Conneaut, OH 44030

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1909 0.31 ac lot Est $185k · 30% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing 992 Mill Street - Lake Erie views and a home to make your own! This classic two-story home has 1,440 square feet of flexible living space and offers an extra parcel to help make all of your outdoor dreams a reality. This property sits 1-2 blocks from the best of Conneaut's lakefront amenities, including parks, beach, marina, art center, museum and restaurants. With 2 parcels and over . 30 acre of land, there is room for your boat or recreational vehicle and space left over for outdoor entertaining. The main floor offers flexible living space to meet your needs. There is enclosed front porch, space for a living room, family room, dining room and a kitchen that leads to an enclose

Key facts

• Extra parcel
• Lakefront amenities
• Lake erie views

Tags

• LAKE ERIE VIEWS
• EXTRA PARCEL
• LAKEFRONT AMENITIES
• ROOM FOR BOAT
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Conneaut — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#808 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Conneaut Area City (town): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #527 of 656 in OH (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,185 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,680
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
820 Sandusky St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,463 (+2%)	12mo	$170,000	$116	74
300 Lake Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,537 (+7%)	16mo	$187,000	$122	70
863 Harbor	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-1%)	16mo	$115,000	$80	70
169 Dean Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,452 (+1%)	13mo	$115,000	$79	64
794 Buffalo St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+14%)	8mo	$187,000	$114	50
842 Day St	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$125,000	$93	46
182 12th St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-10%)	19mo	$123,000	$95	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,743
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,151
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44030

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $105	+0% $68	+5% $32	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $25	+0% $68	+5% $112	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $101	base $68	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-03-11
   historical Contingent
4. 2026-03-03
   status Active
5. 2026-01-30
   historical Contingent
6. 2025-12-04
   listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 76.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904381
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,064
• Composite: 35.37/100
• National rank: #4953
• State rank: #527 of 656 in OH

Livability — Conneaut

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #14907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conneaut, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,317
• Household income: $57,264
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.2

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.21%
• Current HPI: 265.5019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-11 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-30 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-04 Listed $129,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $802 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.