51 Payton Pl · Roxboro, NC 27573

$253,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 0.37 ac lot Est $275k · 8% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you'll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for family or guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only and may be of a similar home with the same floor plan.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,600 (builder source)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: House (Everglades model); Two levels; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Everglades builder model
• Exterior features: Public-maintained road access; Lot dimensions: 120' x 113' x 124' x 93'; Lot area: 0.29 acres; Zoned SFR

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stories Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 49%, grade D+, #403 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 365 students, 99% FRL); Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 54% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $180,558 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Younger Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-3%)	3mo	$329,900	$213	75
244 Semora Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-4%)	23mo	$272,900	$177	60
814 Frank St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,777 (+11%)	6mo	$190,000	$107	50
408 Reade Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (+9%)	9mo	$254,000	$145	50
209 Reade Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-9%)	1mo	$250,000	$172	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $67,879
• Equity at exit: $176,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $213,014
• Equity at exit: $334,649

Cash invested: $71,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27573

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,810/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $206,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-241	+0% $-329	+5% $-417	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-400	+0% $-329	+5% $-258	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-264	base $-329	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,498
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $253,990 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,990 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $253,990 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $253,990 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $253,990 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $253,990 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $253,990 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $253,990 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    historical $1,400
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $253,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family's needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you'll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks. Photos are for illustrative purposes only and may be of a similar home with the same floor plan.

18. 2026-04-30
    listed $253,990 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family's needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you'll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks. Photos are for illustrative purposes only and may be of a similar home with the same floor plan.

19. 2026-04-30
    listed $280,990 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family's needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you'll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks. Photos are for illustrative purposes only and may be of a similar home with the same floor plan.

20. 2025-12-25
    listed $1,400
21. 2025-12-25
    historical $1,600
22. 2025-12-20
    historical $1,600
23. 2025-12-16
    listed $1,600
24. 2025-12-11
    historical $1,600
25. 2025-12-10
    listed $1,600
26. 2025-12-05
    historical $1,600
27. 2025-11-30
    listed $1,600
28. 2025-11-19
    historical $1,600
29. 2025-11-07
    listed $1,600
30. 2025-11-06
    listed $1,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,227
• − Property taxes: −$3,810
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$8,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roxboro, NC
• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 11,954

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Current HPI: 286.1496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Rental Removed $1,400 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-30 Listed $280,990 TMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $253,990 TMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $253,990 TMLS
• 2025-12-25 Listed for Rent $1,400 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-25 Rental Removed $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-20 Rental Removed $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-16 Listed for Rent $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-11 Rental Removed $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-10 Listed for Rent $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-12-05 Rental Removed $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-30 Listed for Rent $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-19 Rental Removed $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-06 Listed for Rent $1,600 TENANTTURNER2