405 Mystic Trail Loop · Houston, TX 77339

$319,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2003 5,244 sqft lot $125/sqft · 19% below area Est $392k · 19% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 405 Mystic Trail Loop, a beautifully remodeled home updated with attention to every detail. This thoughtfully redesigned residence showcases quality craftsmanship throughout, offering a modern, turnkey living experience in the established Lakewood Cove community. The home features 3 spacious bedrooms plus an additional flex room that can easily serve as a fourth bedroom, home office, workout space, or kids’ playroom. Designed for both comfort and functionality, this home provides versatile living options to fit your lifestyle. Conveniently located with easy access to Highway 59, commuting and travel are simple and efficient. Schedule your private showing today and experienc

Key facts

• Flex room
• Turnkey living
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• QUALITY CRAFTSMANSHIP
• TURNKEY LIVING
• LAKEWOOD COVE COMMUNITY
• FLEX ROOM
• VERSATILE LIVING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-769 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,144 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.33%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,103
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -18.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Trail Springs Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,635 (+4%)	4mo	$325,000	$123	77
1107 Burning Tree Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,498 (-2%)	10mo	$289,000	$116	60
2019 Laurel Springs Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,374 (-7%)	2mo	$425,000	$179	55
1306 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,793 (+10%)	3mo	$425,000	$152	54
2026 Players Path	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,737 (+8%)	2mo	$399,999	$146	53
910 Southern Hills Rd	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,693 (+6%)	1mo	$550,000	$204	53
1010 Saint Andrews	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,258 (-11%)	2mo	$290,000	$128	48
1006 Castle Hill Trl	0.74mi	3/3.5	2,373 (-7%)	3mo	$449,000	$189	48
1406 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,248 (-12%)	10mo	$350,000	$156	46
2031 Players Path	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,231 (-12%)	10mo	$435,600	$195	46
903 Castle Hill Trl	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,757 (+8%)	12mo	$459,000	$166	39
1311 Forest Cove Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,200 (-14%)	16mo	$370,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-56,950
• Equity at exit: $100,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,096
• Equity at exit: $126,890

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,670/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,021

Max offer price $183,144

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	43d	1	1.27mi
1735 Wilderness Park Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,319	$1.07	24d	1	1.30mi
21504 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$2,100	$0.93	5d	1	1.32mi
2003 Ridgeway Park Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2477	$1,850	$0.75	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    historical
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $320,000 Active
17. 2026-04-12
    status Active
18. 2026-04-12
    status Active
19. 2026-04-12
    historical
20. 2026-04-12
    historical
21. 2026-04-06
    status Pending
22. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
23. 2025-11-13
    listed $320,000 Active
24. 2025-02-21
    soldstatus
25. 2018-07-31
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2018-07-31
    soldstatus
27. 2018-07-24
    status Pending
28. 2018-07-23
    listed $194,900 Active
29. 2009-09-17
    soldstatus
30. 2008-06-08
    historical
31. 2008-05-21
    listed $152,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,670 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,670 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,670
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$15,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+109.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-23 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2009-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-05-21 Listed $152,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,670 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.