17609 Bathurst Ave · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new Florida oasis, with over an acres of completely fenced-in land, and multiple outbuildings. If you have been looking for an incredible homestead that is still close to modern conveniences, this home is perfect for you! The home is spacious, with over 1,200 square feet of living space, plus a huge garage / barn, greenhouse, back deck, chicken coop, and additional fencing for livestock, such as goats or even a horse! Stepping into the front door, you'll enter the living room, complete with fireplace! The kitchen and dining rooms are off to the east side of the home, and the bedrooms and bathrooms are to the west. The master suite takes up a huge portion of the home and is i

Key facts

• Fenced-in land
• Huge garage
• Back deck

Tags

• FENCED-IN LAND
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• HUGE GARAGE
• GREENHOUSE
• BACK DECK
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: AR; Lot size about 1.16 acres (1 to less than 2 acres)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link fencing; Storage structure; Cleared, level pasture lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Den / library / office; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-263/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $230k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,767 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,787
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,071
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $226,135

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $43	+0% $-22	+5% $-87	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-88	+0% $-22	+5% $44	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $37	base $-22	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $230,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,366/yr (+$114/mo · 251.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+291.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $235,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $240,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — HCAR
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-12-18 Listed $255,000 HCAR
• 2025-12-14 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records
• 1997-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.