4312 Connection Ave · Cape Coral, FL 33909

$199,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,683 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot Est $311k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful waterfront property, fresh water canal (no Gulf access). Property owner is a License Real Estate Broker

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Freshwater canal lot
• Block construction

Tags

• FRESHWATER CANAL LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOMS
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• CANAL FRONTAGE
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; Facing east; Under construction
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Room for pool; Canal access with navigable water; West exposure; Rectangular lot; Public maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Dual sinks; Separate shower; Shower only; Split bedrooms; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 1597 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $199k implies a 624% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,355
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4301 NE 9th Ct	0.17mi	4/3.0	1,698 (+1%)	10mo	$346,000	$204	82
4129 Andalusia Blvd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,719 (+2%)	2mo	$318,000	$185	71
1000 NE 44th St	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,829 (+9%)	10mo	$344,500	$188	70
1024 NE 44th St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,499 (-11%)	6mo	$215,000	$143	66
904 Vogiantzis Pkwy	0.63mi	4/3.0	1,683 (0%)	11mo	$210,000	$125	62
4328 NE 9th Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (-13%)	1mo	$299,090	$204	55
4002 NE 9th Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$193	54
1013 NE 39th Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+10%)	2mo	$330,000	$179	54
827 NE 41st St	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,914 (+14%)	10mo	$350,000	$183	48
4215 NE 17th Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+8%)	3mo	$303,000	$167	47
3921 NE 16th Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+8%)	11mo	$318,200	$176	44
4021 Andalusia Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (-13%)	4mo	$308,990	$210	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,219
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,502
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33909

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 1597
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $616	+0% $560	+5% $503	+10% $447
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $471	+0% $560	+5% $648	+10% $736
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $610	base $560	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,835	$1.09	4d	1	0.27mi
4028 NE 10th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,146	$1.16	4d	1	0.30mi
4000 NE 9th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2143	$2,500	$1.17	2d	1	0.50mi
1518 NE 43rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	17d	1	0.51mi
4125 NE 15th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	24d	1	0.57mi
4421 NE 15th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,000	$1.61	24d	1	0.61mi
3732 NE 12th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	24d	1	0.62mi
3804 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$1,995	$1.19	15d	1	0.65mi
3717 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	17d	1	0.70mi
1701 NE 44th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,800	$1.57	15d	1	0.72mi
1701 NE 44th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,800	$1.57	17d	1	0.72mi
3928 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$2,100	$1.25	24d	1	0.77mi
3924 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,500	$1.29	24d	1	0.78mi
3924 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,500	$1.29	22d	1	0.78mi
4215 E Gator Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,725	$1.25	4d	1	0.87mi
4141 NE 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,995	$1.15	15d	1	0.89mi
3620 NE 9th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1969	$2,085	$1.06	20d	1	0.91mi
3610 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	15d	1	0.93mi
4309 NE 20th Ct Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,000	$1.13	22d	1	0.95mi
3462 NE 10th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	24d	1	1.06mi
3925 E Gator Cir Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	22d	1	1.13mi
3445 NE 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	1.16mi
2117 NE 40th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	1776	$2,100	$1.18	17d	1	1.24mi
3622 NE 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,480	$1.93	24d	1	1.25mi
1532 NE 35th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,995	$1.10	24d	1	1.25mi
3511 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	20d	1	1.27mi
3512 NE 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	4d	1	1.28mi
1015 NE 34th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,300	$1.31	24d	1	1.30mi
3603 NE 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,750	$1.53	4d	1	1.32mi
3527 NE 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,000	$1.27	24d	1	1.37mi
19152 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	1.48mi
4213 Garden Blvd Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2143	$2,375	$1.11	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $220,000 Active
14. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $27,500
15. 2021-09-07
    soldstatus $27,500 Closed 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Beautiful waterfront property, fresh water canal (no Gulf access). Property owner is a License Real Estate Broker

16. 2021-08-14
    status Pending 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Beautiful waterfront property, fresh water canal (no Gulf access). Property owner is a License Real Estate Broker

17. 2021-05-03
    listed $28,500 Active 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Beautiful waterfront property, fresh water canal (no Gulf access). Property owner is a License Real Estate Broker

18. 2020-11-23
    historical
19. 2019-11-23
    listed $13,900 Active
20. 2019-11-11
    historical
21. 2019-11-05
    status Active
22. 2019-11-02
    price $11,000
23. 2019-11-01
    historical
24. 2019-08-14
    price $12,750
25. 2019-03-05
    price $12,900
26. 2018-11-08
    listed $13,900 Active
27. 2015-03-02
    price $113,800
28. 2005-05-26
    soldstatus $114,500
29. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus $114,500
30. 2004-03-22
    soldstatus $31,500
31. 2004-01-20
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 73.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $3,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $5,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,231
• Household income: $73,053
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1657.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 14% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.24%
• Current HPI: 313.8761
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.60%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+947.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $220,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-07 Sold (MLS) $27,500 FORTMLS
• 2021-08-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-05-03 Listed $28,500 FORTMLS
• 2020-11-23 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-23 Listed $13,900 FORTMLS
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-05 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-02 Price Changed $11,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-11-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-08-14 Price Changed $12,750 FORTMLS
• 2019-03-05 Price Changed $12,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-11-08 Listed $13,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-02 Price Changed $113,800 FORTMLS
• 2005-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $114,500 Public Records
• 2005-05-20 Sold (MLS) $114,500 FORTMLS
• 2004-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2004-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.