KITSON Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$239,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $239,999

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car parking (2 total spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (KITSON); Living area approximately 1402
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing); Plan name: KITSON
• Exterior features: New construction plan home; Located By Appointment Only

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan-built kitchen (KITSON plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. The $239,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,153.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,024 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,153
• List price: $239,999
• Delta: -7.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23501 Firelight Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	92
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	90
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	89
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	88
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	87
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	80
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+8%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	76
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+8%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	76
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+8%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	76
13329 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	2mo	$220,990	$175	73
23616 Tiny Moons Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	2mo	$252,990	$158	67
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $130,113
• Equity at exit: $234,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $393,045
• Equity at exit: $505,421

Cash invested: $72,843 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,902/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $233,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-96	+0% $-186	+5% $-276	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-267	+0% $-186	+5% $-105	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-120	base $-186	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,038
• Closing costs: $7,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.59mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.64mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.64mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.72mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.74mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.83mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.85mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.88mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,999 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $239,999 Active 419-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,573
• − Property taxes: −$3,902
• − Insurance: −$1,301
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$7,568
• Taxable loss: −$6,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $-606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 28 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a clean, well-maintained exterior. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern material — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern material — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B