41573 W Monsoon Ln · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2018 4,889 sqft lot $185/sqft · 19% below area Est $301k · 19% under $466/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! 24 hr Guard Gate Community. Step inside this beautifully updated Villa built in the heart of Province, Maricopa! With 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan. Light and bright gem features brand new flooring in bedrooms, fresh paint throughout, all Whirlpool appliances. The inviting kitchen island anchors living space, perfect for entertaining. enjoy a private, covered patio and a charming backyard retreat. 2 car garage epoxy flooring. This home offers a fresh start and a serene lifestyle-an active adult community. Indoor outdoor pools for the convenience of your comfort. Many activities, Pickleball & Tennis to fit your lifestyle at this active Province communi

Key facts

• $466 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Butterfield Elementary School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #438 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 774 students, 52% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,144 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,862
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -18.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41965 W Fiesta Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+1%)	1mo	$293,000	$220	81
41767 W Sagebrush Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (+1%)	1mo	$290,000	$218	74
41388 W Hopper Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (+10%)	5mo	$250,000	$172	68
41895 W Hospitality Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,503 (+14%)	1mo	$299,500	$199	67
41960 W Celebration Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,503 (+14%)	1mo	$314,500	$209	65
41896 W Avella Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (+0%)	2mo	$270,000	$204	61
41960 W Fiesta Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,503 (+14%)	7mo	$325,000	$216	60
42320 W North Star Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,514 (+14%)	5mo	$275,000	$182	49
20563 N Big Dipper Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,502 (+13%)	2mo	$299,900	$200	46
42607 W Constellation Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+15%)	3mo	$258,805	$170	42
41320 W Rio Bravo Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+13%)	4mo	$289,000	$192	36
41288 W Rio Bravo Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,503 (+14%)	4mo	$291,890	$194	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-56,265
• Equity at exit: $60,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-83,405
• Equity at exit: $64,625

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,990/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$466
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $142,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-444	-5% $-513	+0% $-582	+5% $-652	+10% $-721
Rent	-10% $-726	-5% $-654	+0% $-582	+5% $-510	+10% $-439
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-520	base $-582	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20520 N Candlelight Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1613	$1,795	$1.11	18d	1	0.19mi
21110 N Blue Agave Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	45d	1	0.33mi
41570 W Dusty Creek Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	0.36mi
42181 W Basie Ln Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1491	$1,674	$1.12	22d	1	0.41mi
42181 W Basie Ln Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1491	$1,674	$1.12	26d	1	0.41mi
42348 W Fountainhead St Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	45d	1	0.54mi
42416 W Heavenly Pl Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	45d	1	0.56mi
21552 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.60mi
42599 W Candyland Pl Maricopa, AZ	1.0	2.0	1340	$1,675	$1.25	0d	1	0.66mi
42599 W Candyland Pl Maricopa, AZ	1.0	2.0	1340	$1,675	$1.25	12d	1	0.66mi
41192 W Rio Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,789	$1.01	21d	1	0.71mi
41284 W Cahill Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,750	$1.29	11d	1	0.74mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,656	$1.07	0d	1	0.75mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	0.79mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,775	$1.08	26d	1	0.79mi
19550 N Gunsmoke Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$1,394	$1.32	26d	10	0.82mi
41201 W Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,799	$1.16	3d	1	0.89mi
42826 W Darter Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1596	$1,875	$1.17	26d	1	0.89mi
39974 W Thornberry Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,900	$1.30	16d	1	1.03mi
39941 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	26d	1	1.03mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	26d	1	1.04mi
40040 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	1.14mi
22303 Bishop Dr Unit 1545930P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	13d	1	1.16mi
21563 N Greenway Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,200	$1.97	0d	1	1.17mi
22463 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	26d	1	1.24mi
21338 N Keystone Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,475	$1.16	45d	1	1.31mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	7d	1	1.32mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	14d	1	1.33mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	0d	1	1.33mi
41889 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	3.0	1857	$1,845	$0.99	7d	1	1.35mi
22693 N Davis Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,399	$1.09	45d	1	1.35mi
40871 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	0d	1	1.36mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.41mi
40499 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	1.45mi
43683 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,665	$1.48	7d	1	1.45mi
40643 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,595	$1.10	26d	1	1.45mi
43205 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	1.48mi
40499 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,599	$1.21	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $466 · $5,592/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $245,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-05-19
    historical
12. 2026-05-15
    price $245,000
13. 2026-04-30
    price $274,900
14. 2026-03-09
    listed $285,000 Active
15. 2009-10-01
    soldstatus $17,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,990
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − HOA: −$5,592
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$11,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,719
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-98.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $274,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $285,000 ARMLS
• 2009-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,990 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.