1438 Bluebird Ter · Brentwood, MO 63144

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Condo public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1950 $221/sqft · 9% below area Est $198k · 9% under $363/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready townhome in sought-after Brentwood Forest! This beautifully updated 2-bed, 1-bath home. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, double sink, and custom cabinetry. Enjoy the private back deck with extra storage. Upstairs includes an updated bath, spacious bedrooms with ceiling fans, and a washer/dryer. Community amenities include two pools, tennis courts, a one-mile walking trail, and a three-acre lake. Ideal location—close to restaurants, shopping, and highways. Maintenance-free living at its best!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Private back deck
• Updated bath

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• UPDATED BATH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• TWO POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in MO, #689 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Brentwood (suburban): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #4 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,008 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,509
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -8.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-45,197
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-66,257
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63144

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,166/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$363
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $142,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-164	+0% $-215	+5% $-266	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-282	+0% $-215	+5% $-148	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-169	base $-215	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1469 Bobolink Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	981	$1,700	$1.73	44d	1	0.01mi
8901 Cardinal Ter Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,600	$1.59	11d	1	0.08mi
1696 E Swan Cir Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	967	$1,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.18mi
9071 Wrenwood Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,650	$1.56	44d	1	0.26mi
1800 S Brentwood Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$2,105	$1.81	2d	19	0.26mi
1607 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	946	$2,038	$2.15	2d	1	0.26mi
1736 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	0.37mi
8661 Litzsinger Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	910	$1,765	$1.94	44d	1	0.78mi
2501 Mary Ave Brentwood, MO	1.0	1.5	1100	$1,725	$1.57	8d	1	0.86mi
9006 Madge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	8d	1	0.97mi
8056 Davis Dr Unit 80562N Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	44d	1	1.01mi
72 Van Mark Way Brentwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,249	$1.60	2d	4	1.05mi
2806 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,550	$2.31	2d	1	1.17mi
7570 Oxford Dr Apt 2S Clayton, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	2d	1	1.19mi
7784 W Bruno Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	44d	1	1.24mi
7828 Laclede Forest Dr Maplewood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,345	$1.86	4d	2	1.25mi
7720 Gissler Ave Unit 1E Richmond Heights, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	44d	1	1.25mi
7553 Buckingham Dr Clayton, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	44d	1	1.27mi
7530 Buckingham Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	1.28mi
7537 Buckingham Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	8d	1	1.30mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,445	$1.86	3d	12	1.33mi
7555 Byron Pl Unit 55-1N Clayton, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	24d	1	1.34mi
7551 Byron Pl Unit 51-1S Clayton, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	1.35mi
7551 Byron Pl Unit 51-2S Clayton, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.35mi
1421 Claytonia Ter Unit 1F Richmond Heights, MO	2.0	1.0	855	$1,125	$1.32	11d	1	1.38mi
1034 N Rock Hill Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	696	$1,650	$2.37	44d	1	1.45mi
1146 Moorlands Dr Richmond Heights, MO	2.0	1.0	1075	$1,500	$1.40	44d	1	1.46mi
7560 Alicia Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $363 · $4,356/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2025-10-16
    listed $185,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Move-in ready townhome in sought-after Brentwood Forest! This beautifully updated 2-bed, 1-bath home. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, double sink, and custom cabinetry. Enjoy the private back deck with extra storage. Upstairs includes an updated bath, spacious bedrooms with ceiling fans, and a washer/dryer. Community amenities include two pools, tennis courts, a one-mile walking trail, and a three-acre lake. Ideal location—close to restaurants, shopping, and highways. Maintenance-free living at its best!

15. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $185,000
16. 2022-02-23
    soldstatus Closed 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Move-in ready two-story home in desirable Brentwood Forest Subdivision! This beautiful 2 bed 1 bath townhome, with new paint and carpeting, awaits new owners! Enter the first level and be greeted by laminate wood flooring that spans from the living room into the dining area. From there enter your kitchen with double sink, stainless steel appliances, and custom cabinetry. Next step out the sliding glass door to the back deck which also offers an additional storage area. Upstairs you will find an updated bathroom, spacious bedrooms with lighted ceiling fans, and a newer washer and dryer. Community offers two pools, a tennis court, one-mile walking trail, and three-acre lake! Maintenance-free living at its finest. Close to restaurants, shopping, and more; this home is ideally located!

17. 2022-01-19
    status Pending 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Move-in ready two-story home in desirable Brentwood Forest Subdivision! This beautiful 2 bed 1 bath townhome, with new paint and carpeting, awaits new owners! Enter the first level and be greeted by laminate wood flooring that spans from the living room into the dining area. From there enter your kitchen with double sink, stainless steel appliances, and custom cabinetry. Next step out the sliding glass door to the back deck which also offers an additional storage area. Upstairs you will find an updated bathroom, spacious bedrooms with lighted ceiling fans, and a newer washer and dryer. Community offers two pools, a tennis court, one-mile walking trail, and three-acre lake! Maintenance-free living at its finest. Close to restaurants, shopping, and more; this home is ideally located!

18. 2022-01-12
    listed $185,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Move-in ready two-story home in desirable Brentwood Forest Subdivision! This beautiful 2 bed 1 bath townhome, with new paint and carpeting, awaits new owners! Enter the first level and be greeted by laminate wood flooring that spans from the living room into the dining area. From there enter your kitchen with double sink, stainless steel appliances, and custom cabinetry. Next step out the sliding glass door to the back deck which also offers an additional storage area. Upstairs you will find an updated bathroom, spacious bedrooms with lighted ceiling fans, and a newer washer and dryer. Community offers two pools, a tennis court, one-mile walking trail, and three-acre lake! Maintenance-free living at its finest. Close to restaurants, shopping, and more; this home is ideally located!

19. 2022-01-10
    historical $185,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Move-in ready two-story home in desirable Brentwood Forest Subdivision! This beautiful 2 bed 1 bath townhome, with new paint and carpeting, awaits new owners! Enter the first level and be greeted by laminate wood flooring that spans from the living room into the dining area. From there enter your kitchen with double sink, stainless steel appliances, and custom cabinetry. Next step out the sliding glass door to the back deck which also offers an additional storage area. Upstairs you will find an updated bathroom, spacious bedrooms with lighted ceiling fans, and a newer washer and dryer. Community offers two pools, a tennis court, one-mile walking trail, and three-acre lake! Maintenance-free living at its finest. Close to restaurants, shopping, and more; this home is ideally located!

20. 2019-02-14
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2019-01-17
    status Pending
22. 2019-01-15
    listed $163,000 Active
23. 2005-04-05
    soldstatus $139,000
24. 1997-02-12
    soldstatus $75,000
25. 1990-12-01
    soldstatus $55,500
26. 1990-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,166 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,166
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − HOA: −$4,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$5,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood
• NCES district ID: 2905880
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,522
• Composite: 57.51/100
• National rank: #1069
• State rank: #4 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #689

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 9,505
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,505
• Household income: $104,438
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.33%
• Current HPI: 207.0145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-12 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-10 Coming Soon $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-15 Listed $163,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,166 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.