286 Starling Rd · Manchester, GA 31816

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1961 0.56 ac lot $63/sqft · 46% below area Est $112k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper out in the county. 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. To be sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 5.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $60k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.91%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,020
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -46.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $82,528
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.13×
• Total profit: $203,812
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31816

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $817	-5% $800	+0% $783	+5% $766	+10% $749
Rent	-10% $668	-5% $725	+0% $783	+5% $840	+10% $898
Rate	-1.0pp $813	-0.5pp $798	base $783	+0.5pp $767	+1.0pp $751

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 285 DOM
17. 2025-08-16
    listed $60,000 New 78-char remark

    Show marketing remark (78 chars)

    Great opportunity. A fixer upper with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath out in the county.

18. 2025-08-16
    listed $60,000 Active 78-char remark

    Show marketing remark (78 chars)

    Great opportunity. A fixer upper with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath out in the county.

19. 2019-04-03
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 2019-04-02
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold
21. 2019-03-25
    status Under Contract
22. 2019-03-15
    listed $30,000 New
23. 2016-04-21
    price $27,000
24. 2016-04-06
    historical
25. 2016-04-06
    soldstatus $27,000 Sold
26. 2016-04-06
    soldstatus $27,000
27. 2016-03-22
    status Under Contract
28. 2016-03-22
    price $28,000
29. 2016-02-02
    price $28,000
30. 2016-01-05
    status Back On Market
31. 2016-01-01
    historical
32. 2015-10-17
    price $29,000
33. 2015-09-23
    listed $35,000 New
34. 2014-08-14
    price $23,500
35. 2014-07-30
    soldstatus $23,500 Sold
36. 2014-07-08
    status Under Contract
37. 2014-07-08
    price $29,900
38. 2014-05-15
    listed $29,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 57.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $8,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,145
• After-tax cash flow: $7,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 48% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.75%
• Current HPI: 298.3716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+100.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-16 Listed $60,000 CBOR
• 2025-08-16 Listed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-02 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GAMLS
• 2019-03-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-03-15 Listed $30,000 GAMLS
• 2016-04-21 Price Changed $27,000 GAMLS
• 2016-04-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2016-04-06 Sold (MLS) $27,000 GAMLS
• 2016-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2016-03-22 Price Changed $28,000 GAMLS
• 2016-02-02 Price Changed $28,000 GAMLS
• 2016-01-05 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2016-01-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2015-10-17 Price Changed $29,000 GAMLS
• 2015-09-23 Listed $35,000 GAMLS
• 2014-08-14 Price Changed $23,500 GAMLS
• 2014-07-30 Sold (MLS) $23,500 GAMLS
• 2014-07-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-07-08 Price Changed $29,900 GAMLS
• 2014-05-15 Listed $29,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.