17436 Gary Trl #27 · Warsaw, MN 55021

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 512 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1963 Fair condition ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quaint 2-bedroom lake cabin nestled on a scenic shoreline with a private dock for easy water access. Enjoy panoramic lake views and a serene, peaceful setting surrounded by nature. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat or a seasonal getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation.

Key facts

• Scenic shoreline
• Private dock
• Panoramic lake views

Tags

• PRIVATE DOCK
• PANORAMIC LAKE VIEWS
• SCENIC SHORELINE
• SERENE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fractional ownership: No
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed as $342 (2025)

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Shared water system and private well; Holding tank sewer; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Above-grade finished area: 512 (main level finished area)
• Construction: Foundation described as other; Foundation area: 512
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lakefront property (no road between home and water)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No cooling
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#483 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Faribault Public School District (town): math 17% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #275 of 301 in MN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Rice County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,160
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,049
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55021

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $114,900 Active 323-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$227
• After-tax cash flow: $2,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This lakefront cabin requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Severe weathering
• Major paint — Peeling paint
• Major roof — Visible wear
• Major dock — Worn wooden dock

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both repair roof — Improves structural integrity and resale value
• Both replace dock — Enhances usability and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
dock · Worn wooden dock	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both repair roof — Improves structural integrity and resale value ↑
• Both replace dock — Enhances usability and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Faribault Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711760
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 22.85/100
• National rank: #8011
• State rank: #275 of 301 in MN

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #11585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rice County · 56,558 people
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• Population (ZIP): 30,908
• Household income: $68,820
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 755.0

Population outlook (Rice County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,716 people
• By 2030: 67,352 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 67,595 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 67,074 · +0.5%
• By 2075: 66,641 · -0.1%
• By 2100: 66,205 · -0.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rice

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.5pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+3.1 2012: D+8.3 2008: D+11.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.12%
• Current HPI: 253.3996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-28.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $82,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $114,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid