31 Thamsen Dr · Stony Point, NY 10980

$230,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 2002 4.92 ac lot Est $226k · at est. $1200/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step in and step up your expectations! GORGEOUS 3 bedroom 2 bath 1700+ sq ft "Shamrock Model" sitting pretty with a river view and a rear yard. .. This humble abode is a manufactured home with a lot rent of $1200 (you would never know it is a manufactured home!) Features gleaming floors; an open kitchen! that is an absolute pleasure to cook in! Large Fridge dishwasher range and new double oven with counter space galore! Large living room with hight ceilings and a double slider that leads to a small slice of heaven! Large Deck paver walkway, fenced in and private! 3 large bedrooms with closets that offer storage organization! Large main bath and a gorgeous en-suite with a large wa

Key facts

• 4.92 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee of $1,200 per month; Association covers common area maintenance and snow removal; Additional monthly fee of $1,200 for lot rent

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; Other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected (Orange & Rockland); Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Phone connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Manufactured home property subtype; Actual property condition
• Construction: Manufactured house; Living area reported from plans
• Exterior features: Back yard; Corner lot; Landscaped yard; Near golf course; Near public transit; Near shops; Private setting; Secluded

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; Central air conditioning; Has fireplace
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup (gas); Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $231k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $231k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in Stony Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#450 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland) (suburban): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #427 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stony Point Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 725 students, 17% FRL); James A Farley Elementary School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade D, #366 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 538 students, 7% FRL); North Rockland High School (math 86% / reading 67%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,687 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 8% FRL vs 40% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,069 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Thamsen Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,700 (0%)	7mo	$226,000	$133	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,868
• Equity at exit: $34,443

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,036
• Equity at exit: $19,973

Cash invested: $64,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10980

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,211
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$1,200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,302

Max offer price $230,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,750
• Closing costs: $6,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Rosetown Rd Tomkins Cove, NY	2.0	1.0	1128	$2,800	$2.48	1d	1	1.29mi
79 Buckberg Rd Tomkins Cove, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,800	$2.53	7d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,200 · $14,400/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $230,999
3. 2026-03-14
   status Active
4. 2026-03-03
   listed $230,000 Active
5. 2026-02-18
   historical $230,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,559 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,344/yr (+$112/mo · 110.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,940
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$1,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,225
• − Management: −$3,225
• − HOA: −$14,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,720
• Taxable loss: −$2,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland)
• NCES district ID: 3614010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,218
• Composite: 40.68/100
• National rank: #3672
• State rank: #427 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stony Point

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #7882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Point, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,793

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -459.52%
• Current HPI: 243.4467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $230,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Coming Soon $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,215 · +164.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.